University of Sistan and Baluchestan Journal of Natural Environmental Hazards 2676-4377 14 45 2025 09 23 Drought monitoring based on the NDVI index and its effects on the villages of Shiraz Drought monitoring based on the NDVI index and its effects on the villages of Shiraz 95 112 8662 10.22111/jneh.2024.49761.2066 FA Babak Ejtemaei Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Payame Noor University, Iran Journal Article 2024 09 07 Recent droughts and climate changes have had profound effects on the natural resources and agriculture of Shiraz County in Fars Province. Drought is recognized as one of the main challenges to sustainable development in the rural areas of Shiraz County. The deep impacts of this phenomenon on agriculture, livelihoods, migration, the environment, and public health highlight the need for precise, data-driven scientific studies. Utilizing remote sensing indices such as NDVI and satellite data enables monitoring of vegetation changes and assessing the intensity of droughts in rural areas. This study aims to evaluate these effects using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and remote sensing data over the period 2016 to 2023. Data obtained from satellite imagery and NDVI analysis indicate a significant reduction in vegetation cover and an increase in drought severity in this region. These changes have led to the depletion of water resources, the degradation of vegetation, and the disruption of local ecosystem balance. Reduced agricultural production, soil erosion, and declining productivity of arable lands are among the major consequences of this critical situation. These conditions have also caused increased migration from rural areas to urban centers, adding pressure to urban infrastructure. From around 2021 onwards, there has been a general decline in NDVI values, suggesting a trend of increasing drought and decreasing rainfall in the region. This gradual decline is especially evident in 2023, highlighting the strain on vegetation in Shiraz County. A comparison of NDVI maps from 2016 and 2023 shows a downward trend in vegetation quality during this period. This decline, particularly in rural areas, poses a serious threat to the livelihoods of rural residents and the environmental sustainability of the region. To address these challenges, corrective measures such as vegetation restoration, sustainable water resource management, watershed projects, and the promotion of smart agriculture are recommended. Recent droughts and climate changes have had profound effects on the natural resources and agriculture of Shiraz County in Fars Province. Drought is recognized as one of the main challenges to sustainable development in the rural areas of Shiraz County. The deep impacts of this phenomenon on agriculture, livelihoods, migration, the environment, and public health highlight the need for precise, data-driven scientific studies. Utilizing remote sensing indices such as NDVI and satellite data enables monitoring of vegetation changes and assessing the intensity of droughts in rural areas. This study aims to evaluate these effects using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and remote sensing data over the period 2016 to 2023. Data obtained from satellite imagery and NDVI analysis indicate a significant reduction in vegetation cover and an increase in drought severity in this region. These changes have led to the depletion of water resources, the degradation of vegetation, and the disruption of local ecosystem balance. Reduced agricultural production, soil erosion, and declining productivity of arable lands are among the major consequences of this critical situation. These conditions have also caused increased migration from rural areas to urban centers, adding pressure to urban infrastructure. From around 2021 onwards, there has been a general decline in NDVI values, suggesting a trend of increasing drought and decreasing rainfall in the region. This gradual decline is especially evident in 2023, highlighting the strain on vegetation in Shiraz County. A comparison of NDVI maps from 2016 and 2023 shows a downward trend in vegetation quality during this period. This decline, particularly in rural areas, poses a serious threat to the livelihoods of rural residents and the environmental sustainability of the region. To address these challenges, corrective measures such as vegetation restoration, sustainable water resource management, watershed projects, and the promotion of smart agriculture are recommended. https://jneh.usb.ac.ir/article_8662_827196f5963e261d2d1ecaa7a6a7dd45.pdf