University of Sistan and Baluchestan Journal of Natural Environmental Hazards 2676-4377 Articles in Press 2025 12 28 Foresight Analysis of Water Issues Using Scenario Planning in Human Settlements of the Nimbeluk Plain, with a Focus on the Steel Industry Foresight Analysis of Water Issues Using Scenario Planning in Human Settlements of the Nimbeluk Plain, with a Focus on the Steel Industry 1 1 9644 10.22111/jneh.2025.52408.2119 FA Fatemeh Khazaei MSc. of Geography, Department of Geography, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran Mohammad Eskandari Sani Associate Professor, Department of Geography, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran Mofid Shatri Associate Professor, Department of Geography, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran Journal Article 2025 06 24 The water crisis in semi-arid regions like South Khorasan has been exacerbated by drought and aquifer depletion. The establishment of the Qaenat Steel Plant in the Nimbeluk Plain, with its high water consumption and environmental impacts, poses a threat to the future of water resources and human settlements in the region. This study aims to provide intelligent management solutions by conducting a foresight analysis of water issues, focusing on the impacts of the steel industry. The research is descriptive-analytical with an applied objective, and data were collected through library and field methods (interviews and questionnaires). The statistical population consisted of 11 regional and water planning experts selected through convenience sampling. Thirty-six variables affecting water resources were identified, and key drivers were determined using structural analysis in MicMac software. Subsequently, a questionnaire was used to assess the impact of these drivers in probable scenarios, and the data were analyzed using scenario planning and Scenario Wizard software. The results identified urban drinking water quality, water supply quality, migration tendencies, water access, and the use of Qaen's urban wastewater as key drivers. Scenario analysis indicated a dominance of undesirable scenarios (75%), highlighting the need for optimal water resource management and mitigation of industrial pressures. This study provides a framework for short-term, medium-term, and long-term policymaking by forecasting water consumption patterns in the Nimbeluk Plain to achieve sustainable development and effective water resource management. The water crisis in semi-arid regions like South Khorasan has been exacerbated by drought and aquifer depletion. The establishment of the Qaenat Steel Plant in the Nimbeluk Plain, with its high water consumption and environmental impacts, poses a threat to the future of water resources and human settlements in the region. This study aims to provide intelligent management solutions by conducting a foresight analysis of water issues, focusing on the impacts of the steel industry. The research is descriptive-analytical with an applied objective, and data were collected through library and field methods (interviews and questionnaires). The statistical population consisted of 11 regional and water planning experts selected through convenience sampling. Thirty-six variables affecting water resources were identified, and key drivers were determined using structural analysis in MicMac software. Subsequently, a questionnaire was used to assess the impact of these drivers in probable scenarios, and the data were analyzed using scenario planning and Scenario Wizard software. The results identified urban drinking water quality, water supply quality, migration tendencies, water access, and the use of Qaen's urban wastewater as key drivers. Scenario analysis indicated a dominance of undesirable scenarios (75%), highlighting the need for optimal water resource management and mitigation of industrial pressures. This study provides a framework for short-term, medium-term, and long-term policymaking by forecasting water consumption patterns in the Nimbeluk Plain to achieve sustainable development and effective water resource management. https://jneh.usb.ac.ir/article_9644_8e5674b39ce18c7db58f331910d4bb28.pdf