Spatial Analysis and regionalization of Climatic Dry Periods in Iran Based on DDSLR Indice

doi:10.22111/jneh.2017.3087

Spatial Analysis and regionalization of Climatic Dry Periods in Iran Based on DDSLR Indice

Document Type : Research Article

10.22111/jneh.2017.3087

Abstract

In terms of climate, Iran is an arid and semi-arid country, where vital water resources in this country are highly dependent on atmospheric precipitation. Understanding the characteristics of climatic dry periods such as frequency, severity, and duration of periods is important in environmental planning. In this regard, characteristics of the country's dry climatic periods based on "dry days after the last day of the rainfall" (DDSLR) using statistical data of 48 synoptic stations in Iran over a 30-year period from 1979 to 2008 were studied. DDSLR index trend changes with a probability of 25, 50, 75 and 90 percent (optimistic, average, pessimistic and very pessimistic) as an indicator of the severity of the drought periods of low, medium, high and very high determined for each of the stations and dry period features including start, stop, frequency, and duration of driest days was determined for each station. Finally, based on the length of dry period and through interpolation method Kriging zoning maps for the entire country was drawn. The results showed that climatic dry periods in stations of southeast of the country, especially port stations such as the Oman Sea (Chabahar and Bandar Abbas), before other stations begin. Also dry period ends earlier in the Caspian Sea coast stations. The shortest period of drought on the northern coast of the country and the longest period of drought occurs in the southeast of the country. The driest days at most stations will happen in October. It also turned out that with an increased probability of 25% (probably optimistic) to 90 percent (likely very pessimistic) the area has a very long period of drought in parts of the south; southeast and northwest of the country will increase.

Keywords

References

انصاری حسین؛ داوری کامران، (1386)، پهنهبندی دورة خشک با استفاده از شاخص بارندگی استاندارد شده در محیط GIS مطالعه موردی خراسان، پژوهشهای جغرافیایی، صص97-108.

ذوالفقاری حسن؛ مجرد فیروز؛ میرزایی مجتبی، (1394)، عدم اعتماد به بارندگی در ایران، تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی، شماره 38، صص207-229.

علیزاده، امین، (1389) ، اصول هیدرولوژی کاربردی. انتشارات: دانشگاه امام رضا. چاپ 29. ویرایش5.

فرج زاده، منوچهر، (1384). خشکسالی از مفهوم تا راهکار. انتشارات: سازمان جغرافیایی و وزارت دفاع و پشتیبانی.

کاویانی، محمد رضا؛ علیجانی بهلول، (1382)، مبانی آب وهواشناسی. انتشارات: سمت. چاپ نهم.

کهربائیان پروین؛ ایرانمنش انیس؛ محمدی حسین، (1392) ، کاربرد مدل زنجیرة مارکوف و توزیع نرمال در تعیین احتمال وقوع دورههای خشکی و ترسالی مشهد، مجله جغرافیا و توسعه ناحیهای، شماره 20 صص181-196.

کوچکی علیرضا؛ نصیری مهدی؛ کمالی غلامعلی، (1386)، مطالعة شاخصهای هواشناسی ایران در شرایط تغییر اقلیم، مجله پژوهشهای زراعی ایران، جلد 5 شماره 1، صص133-142.

مسعودیان، ابوالفضل؛ کاویانی، محمد رضا، (1387)، اقلیم شناسی ایران. انتشارات: دانشگاه اصفهان.

محمودی پیمان؛ پروین نادر؛ رضایی، جبار، (1392)، پهنهبندی ایران بر اساس طول دورههای خشک، مطالعات جغرافیایی مناطق خشک، شماره 13، صص85-106.

Anagnostopoulou, C., Tolika, K., Maheras, P., Reiser, H & Kutiel, H. (2008). Quantifying uncertainties in precipitation: a case study from Greece. Adv Geosci, 16, 19–26.

Aviad, Y., Kutiel, H & Lavee, H. (2009). Variation of Dry Days Since Last Rain (DDSLR) as a measure of dryness along a Mediterranean— arid transect. J Arid Environ, 73, 658–665.

Deka, S., Borah, M & Kakaty, S.C. (2010). Statistical modeling of wet and dry spell frequencies over North-East India. Journal of Applied and Natural Science 2(1): 42-47.

Deni, S.M., Jemain, A.A, & Ibrahim, K. (2010). The best probability models for dry and wet spells in Peninsular Malaysia during monsoon seasons. Int. J. Climatol. 30: 1194–1205.

Giuseppe, E.D., Vento, D., Epifani, C & Esposito, S. (2005). Analysis of dry and wet spells from 1870 to 2000 in four Italian sites. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 7: 1-6.

Hardy, J. (2003). Clamate change, Causes, Effects and solutiond, Johan Wiley sons. Ltd, pp. 39.

Kutiel, H. (1985). The multimodality of the rainfall course in Israel, as reflected by the distribution of dry spells. Arch Meteoro Geophysics Bioclimatol 36:15–27.

Lana X., Martinez, M.D., Burgeno, A & Serra, C. (2008). Return period maps of dry spells for Catalonia (northeastern Spain) based on the Weibull distribution. Hydrological Sciences–Journal–des Sciences Hydrologiques, 53(1) February 2008.

Lopez-Franca, N., Sanchez, E., Romera, R & Dominguez, M. (2013). Dry spells analysis over the Mediterranean basin for present climate and climate change conditions using ENSEMBLES regional climate models. Física de la Tierra Vol. 25 (2013) 41-55.

Mathugama, S.C & Peiris, T.S.G. (2011). Critical Evaluation of Dry Spell Research. International Journal of Basic & Applied Sciences IJBAS-IJENS Vol: 11 No: 06.

Mart´ın-Vide, J & Gomez, L. (1999). Regionalization of peninsular Spain based on the length of dry spells. Int. J. Climatol. 19: 537–555.

Paz, S. & Kutiel H. (2003). Rainfall regime uncertainty (RRU) in an eastern Mediterranean region – a methodological approach. Israel J Earth Sci, 52, 47–63.

Reiser, H & Kutiel, H. (2006). Rainfall uncertainty in the Mediterranean: Definition of the rainy season – a methodological approach;Theor. Appl. Climatol. 94:35-49.

Reiser, H & Kutiel, H. (2009). Rainfall uncertainty in the Mediterranean: definitions of the daily rainfall threshold (DRT) and the rainy season length (RSL);Theor Appl Climatol., 97, 151-162.

Reiser, H & Kutiel, H. (2010). Rainfall uncertainty in the Mediterranean: dryness distribution. Theor Appl Climatol, 100, 123–135.

Ruiz-Sinoga, J.D., Garcia-Marin, R., Gabarron-Galeote, M.A & Martinez-Murillo, J. F. (2012). Analysis of dry periods along a pluviometric gradient in Mediterranean southern Spain. Int. J. Climatol. 32: 1558–1571.

Stern, R.D., Dennett, M.D & Dale, I.C. (1982). Analysing daily rainfall measurements togive agronomically useful results. I. Direct methods. Experimental Agriculture18, 223–236.

Tennant, W.J & Hewitson, B.C. (2002). Intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics and their importance to the seasonal prediction problem. Int J Climatol 22:1033–1048.

Vicente -Serrano, S.M & Begueria-Portugues, S. (2003). Estimating extreme dry-spell risk in the middle Ebro valley (northeastern Spain): a comparative analysis of partial duration series with a general Pareto distribution and annual maxima series with a Gumbel distribution. Int. J. Climatol. 23, 1103-1118.