Monitoring environmental changes in the Bakhtegan Basin based on analysis of daily and nighttime LST trends using MODIS-Aqua

Montazeri, Majid

doi:10.22111/jneh.2026.55903.2175

Monitoring environmental changes in the Bakhtegan Basin based on analysis of daily and nighttime LST trends using MODIS-Aqua

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Article

Author

Majid Montazeri

Associate Professor, Department of Physical Geography, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

10.22111/jneh.2026.55903.2175

Abstract

Environmental changes, driven by both natural and human factors, rank among the most significant challenges of the current century. Due to its high sensitivity to fluctuations in water resources, vegetation, and land use, Land Surface Temperature (LST) serves as an effective indicator for monitoring environmental changes. This study aimed to investigate and monitor environmental changes in the Maharloo-Bakhtegan watershed based on LST temporal trends. To this end, daily and nighttime LST data from the MODIS/Aqua sensor were utilized for the period spanning 2002 to 2020. LST trends were analyzed on a pixel-by-pixel basis using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test at a 95% confidence level, and the magnitude of these trends was estimated using Sen’s slope estimator. The results indicated that the spatial patterns of LST trends effectively reflect environmental changes across the basin. Daytime LST was primarily influenced by topography and elevation, whereas nighttime LST variations showed a stronger correlation with the status of water bodies, soil moisture, and land-use changes. Increasing trends in daytime LST—at an average rate of approximately 0.4°C—were observed mainly in dried-up water bodies and wetlands (including Lakes Bakhtegan, Tashk, Maharlu, and Kaftar) as well as along the Shadkam River. These trends reflect the consequences of water scarcity, reduced surface runoff, and declining soil moisture. Conversely, downward trends in nighttime LST—at a rate of approximately 0.2°C—were identified in parts of these regions, linked to the drying up of water sources and the subsequent changes in their thermal regimes. Furthermore, upward trends in nighttime LST—averaging approximately 0.1°C—were observed in the city of Shiraz, the agricultural lands upstream and downstream of the Doroodzan Dam, and the vicinity of the Molasadra Dam. These patterns align with the expansion of human activities, agricultural development, and the formation of urban heat islands.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Climate warming

References

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