Predication of Frost In Zabol Region Based on Simulations of General Circulation Model

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

Abstract

The aim of this study was to simulate the impact of climate change on frost phenomena in the Zabol station. For this purpose, the method of comparing and selecting the best model fitted to the series of general circulation models were used. At First the  daily data  of Zabol synoptic station in period (1966-2008) was prepared. Then the general circulation model data in two separate periods (1988- 2004 and 2010- 2039) to develop a climate change scenario were used.
After the providing the basic scenario ,four circulation models including HADCM3, BCM2, HADGEM NCPCM were selected and these models evaluated by statistical methods.
The bias , mean absolute error , means and standard deviations of each model was calculated   and finally  generate daily data until 2037. By selecting the best model, artificial data for future climate  of Zabol station was generated.
The results showed that the component of future climatic temperature will increase compared to the previous period. Increase the maximum temperature  for spring and autumn more than winter and summer. Maximum increase in low temperature  is observed from August to February. Frost range in the observed climate period are  about six months and continued from November to April.In the future climate period this time reduce to five months from November to March.
The results showed that all three types of frost are Non-static .The trend of weak frost will  increase in the future and  trend of moderate and severe frosts will decreases . Increasing the number of weak frosts and increasing of moderate and severe frosts in future indicates the  sensitivity of frost in Zabol station  to global warming.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Natural Environmental Hazards
Volume 1, Issue 2 - Serial Number 2
The second issue was published in the Winter 2012
December 2012
Pages 29-48

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History

  • Receive Date: 20 April 2012
  • Revise Date: 03 October 2012
  • Accept Date: 05 December 2012
  • First Publish Date: 18 February 2013
  • Publish Date: 18 February 2013

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