Flood Susceptibility assessments Using Frequency Ratio model in Talar Watershed

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 PhD Candidate, Watershed Management, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Iran

2 PhD, Assistant Professor, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Iran

Abstract

Flood can be having devastating effects on watersheds and human life, so, recognize of flood prone areas have a high influences on flood management. The aim of this study is to assessment of flood susceptibility at Talar watershed with an area of 2067 square kilometers. For this purpose some flood conditioning factor such as elevation, land slope, curvature, topographic wetness index, stream power index, average rainfall, distance to the river, hydrologic group of soil, maximum depth of soil, and land-use have been used. Flood conditioning factor have been prepared using related software and then converted to raster format. In the next step the 135 flood location in the study area were determined. These flood location were divided into two groups consisting of 93 locations for calibration and 42 locations, for validation. Then with comparatively analysis between previous floods coordinates and impressive environmental parameters on flood occurrence the probability of flooding for each class of each parameter was calculated. Faunally was obtained the flood risk map of the study area. Based on the flood risk map, the territory was divided to 5 class sensitivity, very high, high, medium, low and very little. The results have been showed that the frequency ratio method with 80% accuracy have high performance in determination of flood prone areas in Talar watershed.

Keywords


بشارتی طاهر؛ سلیمانی کریم؛ قنبرپور محمدرضا؛ خسروشاهی محمد (1389). اولویت بندی مناطق مستعد سیلاب توسط شبیه­سازی مدل بارش-رواناب HEC-HMS، مجله مدیریت حوزه آبخیز، سال اول، شماره دوم، صص 52-64.
ثروتی محمدرضا؛ رستمی اکبر؛ خدادادی فاطمه (1393). امکان سنجی وقوع سیل در حوضه آبخیز لیلان چای مراغه به روش CN، مجله جغرافیایی سرزمین، دور هشتم، شماره سی و دوم، صص 81-67.
ثقفیان بهرام؛ فرازجو حسن؛ سپهر عادل؛ نجفی نژاد علی (1385). ارزیابی تغییرات کاربری اراضی بر سیل­خیزی حوضه آبخیز سد گلستان، مجله تحقیقات منابع آب ایران، دوره اول، شماره دوم، صص 28-18.
خیری‌زاده منصور؛ ملکی جبرائیل؛ آمونیا حمید (1391). پهنه­بندی خطر سیلاب توسط مدل ANP در حوضه آبخیز مردقچای، مجله پژوهش‌های ژئومرفولوژی کمی، دوره سوم، صص 56-39.
صالحی صادق؛ سلیمانی کریم؛ پازکی‌نژاد زهرا (1394). تحلیلی بر نگرش دانشجویان نسبت به تغییرات اقلیمی، مجله جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی، سال نوزدهم، شماره پنجاه و چهارم، صص 187-171.
معنوی‌امری سیدمحسن؛ ملکیان آرش؛ شاهد، کاکا؛ معتمدوزیری بهارک (1392). ارزیابی کارآیی روش‌های ماسکینگام و آت-کین اصلاح شده در روندیابی سیل، مجله مدیریت حوزه آبخیز، شماره هشتم، صص 119-106.
محمداسماعیل زهرا (1389)، پایش تغییرات کاربری اراضی در کرج توسط سنجش از دور، موسسه تحقیقات آب و خاک، دوره بیست و چهارم، صص 88-81.
نیک نژاد داود؛ علیزاده عزت‌الله (1385). مطالعه سیلاب و کنترل آن در دو حوضه منتهی به دریاچه ارومیه، کارگاه فنی همزیستی با سیلاب، تهران، نیروگاه طرشت.
یوسفی صالح؛ مرادی حمیدرضا؛ تلوری عبدالرسول؛ وفاخواه مهدی (1393). اثر پوشش گیاهی نگهدارنده بر ریخت‌سنجی بخش شریانی رودخانه تالار، مجله اکوهیدرولوژی، دوره اول، شماره دوم، صص 110-99.
Ayu, Ann. (2015), “Prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder and substance abuse among victims of flood disaster in Markurdi”, Ph.D. Thesis.
Bronstert, Axel. (2003), “Floods and climate change: interactions and impacts”, Risk Analysis Journal, 23(3), 545-557.
Christensen, Jens. Christensen, Ole. (2003), “Climate modelling: severe summertime flooding in Europe”, Nature Journal, 421, 805–806.
Greenwood, Ashley, Gerrit, Schoups, Edvard, Campbell, Lane, Patrick. (2014), “Bayesian scrutiny of simple rainfall–runoff models in forest water management”, Journal of Hydrology, 512, 344-365.
Knebl, Maral R. Zong Liang, Yang. Keith, Hutchison. David, Maidment. (2005), “Regional scale flood modeling using NEXRAD rainfall, GIS, and HEC-HMS/RAS”, Journal of Environmental Management, 75, 325-336.
Kron, Wolfgang. (2002), “Flood risk hazard exposure vulnerability”, Proceedings of the Flood Defense, New York Ltd.
Lee, Moung-Jin. Kang, Jung-eun. Jeon, Seongwoo. (2012), “Application of frequency ratio model and validation for predictive flooded area susceptibility mapping using GIS”, Korea Adaptation Center for Climate Change, Munich.
Manandhar, Bikram. (2010), “Flood Plain Analysis and Risk Assessment of Lothar Khola”, MSc Thesis, Tribhuvan University, institute of Forestry, Pokhara.
Morelli, Stefano. Catani, Filippo. (2014), “Rapid assessment of flood susceptibility in urbanized rivers using digital terrain data”, Applied Geography, 54, 35-53.
.Opolot, Emmanuel. (2013), “Application of remote sensing and geographical information systems in flood management”, Journal of applied science engineering and technology, 6 (10), 1884-1984.
.Pallard, Biven. Attilio, Castellarin. Alberto, Montanari. (2009), “A look at the links between drainage density and flood statistics”, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13(1), 1019–1029.
Pourghasemi, Hamidreza. Moradi, Hamidreza. Pradhan, Biswajeet. (2012), “GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping with probabilistic likelihood ratio and spatial multi-criteria evaluation models”, Geosciences, 7, 1857-1878.
Pradhan, Biswajeet. (2009), “Flood susceptible mapping and risk area delineation use logistic regression, GIS and remote sensing”, Spatial Hydrology, 9 (2), 1-18
Pradhan, Biswajeet. Hagemann, Ulrike. Tehrany, Mahyat-Shafapour. Nikolas, Prechte. (2014), “An easy to use ArcMap based texture analysis program for extraction of flooded areas”, Computers and Geosciences, 63, 34-43.
Rahmati, Omid. Zeinivand, Hossein. Besharat, Mosa. (2016), “Flood hazard zoning in Yasooj region, Iran, using GIS and multi-criteria decision analysis”, Journal of Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 7 (3), 1000-1017.
Report of disaster and risk profile, Iran Islamic. 2014, Basic country statistics and indicators Publication.
Roughani, Mohamad. Ghafouri, Mohamad. Tabatabaei, Mohamadreza. (2007), “An innovative methodology for the prioritization of sub-catchments for flood control”, Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geo, 9, 79-87.
Smith, K., Petley, D.N.( 2009). Environmental hazard, accessing risk and reducing disaster. Fifth edition. British Library. ISBN 10: 0-203-88480-9.
Tehrany, Mah-Shafapour. Pradhan, Biswajeet. Jebur, Mustafa. (2013), “Spatial prediction of flood susceptible areas using rule based decision tree and a novel ensemble bivariate and statistical models in GIS”, Hydrology, 504, 69-79.
Tehrany, Mahyat-Shafapour. Biswajeet, Pradhan. Jebur, Mustafa-Neamah. (2014), “Flood susceptibility mapping using a novel ensemble weights-of-evidence and support vector machine models in GIS”, Hydrology, 512, 332-343.
Tehrany, Mahyat-Shafapour. Biswajeet, Pradhan. Shattri, Mansor. Noordin, Ahmad. (2015), “Flood susceptibility assessment using GIS-based support vector machine model with different kernel types”, Catena, 125, 91-101.
Wanders, Niko. Marc, Bierkens. dejung Steven. Deroo, Ade. Derek, Karssenberg. (2013), “the benefits of using remotely sensed soil moisture in parameter identification of hydrological models”, General Assembly, Vienna, Austria.
  • Receive Date: 06 September 2016
  • Revise Date: 30 January 2017
  • Accept Date: 15 April 2017
  • First Publish Date: 21 March 2018
  • Publish Date: 21 March 2018