A spatial assessment of the infrastructure resilience capacity in rural communities of Bojnourd County by FAHP model and fuzzy logic in GIS

Anabestani, Aliakbar; Javanshiri, Mahdi

doi:10.22111/jneh.2018.23018.1351

A spatial assessment of the infrastructure resilience capacity in rural communities of Bojnourd County by FAHP model and fuzzy logic in GIS

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

¹ Professor in Geography & Rural Planning, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

² Ph.D. Student, Geography & Rural Planning, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

10.22111/jneh.2018.23018.1351

Abstract

The main purpose of the present study is to assess the relationship between environmental vulnerability and infrastructure resilience of rural communities (in Bojnourd County), so that one can improve the resilience capacity in rural areas. The research was conducted in a descriptive-analytical method and in nature it is applicable in local planning and rural development systems. Research variables have been selected after reviewing theoretical foundations and literature on vulnerability and resilience assessment in Iran and other countries. Accordingly, two general indicators of vulnerability assessment and infrastructure resilience of rural communities were developed using 26 criteria in FAHP and fuzzy logic (Gamma operator with the thresholds of 0.7, 0.8 and 0.9) in the GIS environment. The results indicate that approximately 56.69% of the County’s area has a high and very high environmental vulnerability, and 47 villages were situated in this area. The survey of the resilience index indicates that there is a significant and direct relationship between low resilience in rural areas and environmental vulnerabilities in the eastern, southern and northeastern parts of Bojnourd County. In addition, based on the FAHP output, about 31 percent of the rural areas of the county, and based on the output of fuzzy logic, about 53 percent of the rural areas of the county are in a very high resilience level). The analysis of the output results of FAHP and fuzzy logic in GIS with a Kappa coefficient of 0.166 showed that the results of the two models have comparatively weak but direct correlation, which was determined by measuring the accuracy of the models using ground control points. Fuzzy logic model with a Kappa coefficient of 0.772 is more accurate than the FAHP model with a Kappa coefficient of 0.550.

Keywords

References

References (in Persian)

Ehshamami, M., & Ekrami, A. (2012). Implementing the Strategic Environmental Assessment Tool for Sustainable Development. Strategic Quarterly, 21 (62), pp. 18-12. [In Persian]

Azadeh, S. R., & Taghvaei, M. (2017). Spatial analysis of vulnerability in urban and rural settlements against earthquake hazard Case Study: Guilan Province. Journal of Environmental Spatial Analysis, 4 (3), pp. 84-71. [In Persian]

North Khorasan Governorate. (2013). Latest Bojnourd country divisions. Bojnourd: North Khorasan Governorate. [In Persian]
Ismaili, A. (2013). Surveying Environmental Risks in Physical Transformations of Rural Settlements (Case Study: Gharkhan Village of Bojnourd County). Master's Thesis, Geography and Planning, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. [In Persian]

Roknedin-e-Eftekhari, A., Moosavi, S., Pourtaheri, M., & Farajzadeh Asl, M. (2014). Analysis of the role of livelihood diversity to rural household resilience in drought condition: case study of the drought exposed areas of Isfahan province. Journal of Rural Research, 5(3), pp. 639-662. doi: 10.22059/jrur.2014.53186 [In Persian]

Bozarjomehri, Kh., Javanshiri, M., Ghorbani, A., & Darban Astaneh, M. (2016). Land Use Stratification Using Multi-Criteria Evaluation and AHP to Locate a Base for Temporary Accommodation in GIS Environment (Case Study: Central District of Faruj County). Journal of Research and Rural Planning, 5(1), pp. 99-121. doi:10.22067/jrrp.v5i1.43879 [In Persian]

Pashanzhad selab, E. (2017). Rural Resilience, A Necessity in Sustainable Development (A View on the Situation of Rural Areas of East Azarbaijan Province). Journal of the Student Science Association of Planning of Land Planning (Space Planning), No. 1, pp. 19-11. [In Persian]

Pourtaheri, M. (2010). Application of Multi-Attribute Decision Making Methods in Geography. Tehran: SAMT Publications. [In Persian]

Rafie'an, M., Rezai, M. R., Asgari, A., Parhrizkar, A., & Shayan, S. (2012). Conceptualization of resilience and its indexation in community-based disaster management (CBDM). The Scientific Research Journals Spatial Planning, 15(4), pp. 19-41. [In Persian]

Ramezanzadeh Lasboei, M., Asgari, A., & Badri, S.A. (2014). Infrastructures and Resiliency to Natural Disasters with Emphasis on Flood the Case: Typical Tourism Regions in North of Iran (Cheshmekile & Sardabrud). Spatial analysis of environmental hazards, 1 (1), pp. 35-52. [In Persian]

Sasanpour, F., Ahangari, N., & Hajinejad, S. (2017). Evaluation of the urban resilience against natural hazards in 12 region of Tehran Metropolis. Spatial analysis of environmental hazards, 4 (3), pp. 85-98 [In Persian]

Salmani, M., Badri, A.S., Sharif, M. & Nasrin Kazemi Sani, A.A. (2015). Assessing the Resilience of the Society Against Natural Risks Investigated: Damavand County. Risk Knowledge, 2 (4), pp. 409-393. [In Persian]

Shahabi, Hayman (2009). The Role of Geomorphic Factors in Determining the Destruction of Urban Wastes in Saqez Using Models (GIS) and remote sensing technology. Master's thesis of geomorphology department of Tabriz University. [In Persian]
Shi Ismail (2000). Urban Planning Workshop (Department of Geography). Tehran: Payame Noor University Press. [In Persian]

Sadeghloo, T., & Sojasi Qidari, H. (2015). Survey relationship between rural settlement livability and rural resilience in front of natural disaster in rural areas of Mravehtapeh and Palizan County. Journal of Emergency Management, 3(2), pp. 37-44. [In Persian]

Salehi, E., Aghababaei, M., Sarmadi, H., & Farzad Behtash, M. (2011). Considering the Environment Resiliency by Use of Cause Model. Journal of Environmental Studies, 37(59), pp. 99-112. [In Persian]

Ghazban, F. (2002). Environmental Geology (1^th Ed.). Tehran: Tehran University Press, 440p. [In Persian]

Faraji Shabbarkh, H.A. (2003). Location of rural production units. Magazine Geography and Development Zone, No. 1, Pp 209-228. [In Persian]
Kamyar, Gh. (2006). Urban and urban rights (1^th Ed.). Tehran: Majd Publications. [In Persian]
Statistical Center of Iran. (2016). Housing Population Census. Bojnord County. Retrieved from the site: www.amar.org.ir [In Persian]
Motamed, A. (2003). General geology (6^th Ed.). Tehran: Tehran University Press. [In Persian]

Varesi, H., Shiran, G., Azizi, H. (2016). Site selection of bus stops by ANP model and fuzzy logic in GIS (A case study: of Khorramabad City). Journal of Research and Urban Planning, 6(23), pp. 55-76. [In Persian]

References (in English)

Adger, W. N. (2006). Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 16(3), pp. 268–281.

Béné, C., Newsham, A., Davies, M., Ulrichs, M., & Godfrey‐Wood, R. (2014). Review article: Resilience, poverty, and development. Journal of International Development, 26(5), pp. 598–623.

Bergstrand, K., Mayer, B., Brumback, B., & Zhang, Y. (2015). Assessing the relationship between social vulnerability and community resilience to hazards. Social Indicators Research, 122(2), pp. 391–409.

Berkes, F. (2007). Understanding uncertainty and reducing vulnerability: lessons from resilience thinking. Natural hazards, 41(2), pp. 283-295. ‏

Bonham-Carter, G. F. (1994). Geographic information systems for geoscientists-modeling with GIS. Computer methods in the geoscientists, 13, pp. 398. ‏

Borda-Rodriguez, A., & Vicari, S. (2014). Rural co-operative resilience: the case of Malawi. Journal of Co-operative Organization and Management, 2(1), pp.43–52.

Carletta, J. (1996). Assessing agreement on classification tasks: the kappa statistic. Computational linguistics, 22(2), pp. 249-254.‏

Cutter, S. L., Burton, C. G., & Emrich, C. T. (2010). Disaster resilience indicators for benchmarking baseline conditions. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, 7(1), pp. 235–239.

De Florio, V. (2015). On resilient behaviors in computational systems and environments. Journal of Reliable Intelligent Environments, 1(1), pp. 33-46.‏

Dill, R., Borba, J. A., & Murcia, F. (2004). Organization’s Profitability Analysis: A Fuzzy Logic Approach. Encamped Congress, 20p.

Doğulu, C., A. N. Karanci, & G, Ikizer. (2016). How do survivors perceive community resilience? The case of the 2011 earthquakes in Van, Turkey. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 16, pp. 108-114.‏

Eastman, J. R. (2012). IDRISI Selva manual. Worcester: Clark Labs.‏

Gaillard, J. C. (2007). Resilience of traditional societies in facing natural hazards. Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal, 16(4), pp. 522-544.‏

Heijman, W., Hagelaar, G., & Heide, M. (2007, June). Rural resilience as a new development concept. In EAAR. Development of agriculture and rural areas in Central and Eastern Europe. 100th seminar of the EAAE. Novi Sad, Serbia (pp. 383-396).‏

Jardine, C. G., & Hrudey, S. E. (1997). Mixed messages in risk communication. Risk analysis, 17(4), pp. 489-498.‏

Joerin, J., Shaw, R., Takeuchi, Y., & Krishnamurthy, R. (2012). Assessing community resilience to climate-related disasters in Chennai, India. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 1(1), pp. 44–54.

Kafle, S. K. (2012). Measuring disaster-resilient communities: A case study of coastal communities in Indonesia. Journal of business continuity & emergency planning, 5(4), pp. 316-326.‏

Lee, S. (2007). Application and verification of fuzzy algebraic operators to landslide susceptibility mapping. Environmental Geology, 52(4), pp. 615-623.‏

Manyena, S. B. (2014). Disaster resilience: A question of ‘multiple faces’ and ‘multiple spaces’?. International journal of disaster risk reduction, 8, pp. 1-9. ‏

Martinelli, D., G. P. Cimellaro, V. Terzic, & S. Mahin. 2014. Analysis of economic resiliency of communities affected by natural disasters: the bay area case study. Procedia Economics and Finance, 18, pp. 959-968.‏

McManus, P., Walmsley, J., Argent, N., Baum, S., Bourke, L., Martin, J., … Sorensen, T. (2012). Rural Community and Rural Resilience: What is important to farmers in keeping their country towns alive? Journal of Rural Studies, 28(1), pp. 20–29.

Mileti, D. (1999). Disasters by design: A reassessment of natural hazards in the United States. Washington DC: Joseph Henry Press, 353p.

Miller, F., Osbahr, H., Boyd, E., Thomalla, F., Bharwani, S., Ziervogel, G., ... & Hinkel, J. (2010). Resilience and vulnerability: complementary or conflicting concepts?. Ecology and Society, 15(3), p. 11.

Rigg, J., & Oven, K. (2015). Building liberal resilience? A critical review from developing rural Asia. Global Environmental Change, 32, pp. 175–186.

Sahoo, S., Dhar, A., & Kar, A. (2016). Environmental vulnerability assessment using Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process-based model. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 56, pp. 145–154.

Schwarz, A. M., Béné, C., Bennett, G., Boso, D., Hilly, Z., Paul, C., ... & Andrew, N. (2011). Vulnerability and resilience of remote rural communities to shocks and global changes: Empirical analysis from the Solomon Islands. Global Environmental Change, 21(3), pp. 1128-1140. ‏

Stephen, L., & Downing, T. E. (2001). Getting the Scale Right: A Comparison of Analytical Methods for Vulnerability Assessment and Household-level Targeting. Disasters, 25(2), pp. 113–135.

Vis, M., Klijn, F., De Bruijn, K. M., & Van Buuren, M. (2003). Resilience strategies for flood risk management in the Netherlands. International journal of river basin management, 1(1), pp. 33-40.‏

Wang, S. H., Huang, S. L., & Budd, W. W. (2012). Resilience analysis of the interaction of between typhoons and land use change. Landscape and Urban Planning, 106(4), pp. 303–315. doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2012.04.002

Wang, X. D., Zhong, X. H., Liu, S. Z., Liu, J. G., Wang, Z. Y., & Li, M. H. (2008). Regional assessment of environmental vulnerability in the Tibetan Plateau: Development and application of a new method. Journal of Arid Environments, 72(10), pp. 1929–1939.

Wilson, G. A. (2012). Geoforum Community resilience, globalization, and transitional pathways of decision-making. Geoforum, 43(6), pp. 1218–1231. doi:10.1016/j.geoforum.2012.03.008

Zhou, H., Wan, J., & Jia, H. (2010). Resilience to natural hazards: a geographic perspective. Natural hazards, 53(1), pp. 21-41. ‏