Detection of extreme values variations of precipitation over Iran

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Professor of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Geography, Payam Noor University, Iran

3 PhD Student of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to identify and detect changes in rainfall extremes as indicators of climate change in  Iran. To conduct this research daily rainfall data of 76 synoptic stations were used from 1986 to 2016. The results show that the trend of the number of days with heavy rainfall was about 7 percent of Iran's negative and 93 percent of it was not observed. The trend of successive dry days in 28% of Iran is a positive trend and 37% there is a negative trend. The wet succession days in most areas of Iran are not trendy. The trend of the total amount of rainy days is about 99% of Iran's negative range. The maximum  negative slope of Iran's annual precipitation was observed at Masjed-e-Soleiman Station with a slope of -8.26  and there is a positive trend in the Bandar-e- Anzali. The trend of very wet days is about 78 percent of Iran is negative and about 14 percent is positive and 8 percent of it is trendless. The trend of very wet days in about 70 percent of Iran is negative. The highest wet days are observed in Khorramabad with a gradient of 1.4 and the highest decreasing trend in Sarpol-e-Zahab with a gradient of 2.78. Also, in 22% of Iran's range, there is no particular trend. The trend of one-day' precipitation in about 47% of Iran's negative and in 47% is without trend and 6% of it is positive. The trend of the maximum amount of 5-day precipitation about 73% of Iran is negative and in 2% it is positive and 25% of it is without a trend. The slope of the decreasing trend in Fasa and Masjed Soleiman stations is -2.4 and -1.9 respectively

Keywords

References

References (in Persian)
Ahmadi, M., Ghavidl-Rahimi Y., (2011), Identification and analysis of low temperatures in the northwestern region of Iran using NTD method, Journal of Earthquake Knowledge, 2 (2): 14-28. [In Persian]
Alijani, B., Farajzadeh, H. (2015). Trend Analysis of Extreme Temperature Indices in the North West of Iran. Geography and Planning, 19(52), 229-256. [In Persian]
Alizadeh, Lev., Rashnev, A., Rashnav, A., (2013), Analysis and Analysis of Changes in Temperature and Rainfall Limits in Ahwaz City, First National Conference on Geography, Urban Development and Sustainable Development, Tehran, Environmental Engineering Society, University of Aviation. [In Persian]
Asada, A., Masoudiyan, A, (2015), Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Iran's Extreme Warm Days Trend. Environmental Researches, 5(9), 59-72. [In Persian]
Asadi, A., Masoodian, A, (2014), Regionalization of Iran based on extreme warm temperatures. Journal of the Earth and Space Physics, 40(4), 155-168. DOI: 10.22059/jesphys.2014.52426. [In Persian]
Asakereh, H., Tarkarani, F., Soltani, S., (2013), On Tempo-Spatial Characters of Extreme Daily Precipitation of Northwest of Iran. Iran Water Resources Research, 8(3), 39-53.
Darand M., (2014), Analysis of variations in extreme temperature and precipitation in Oromieh Indices as the signs of climate change. Journal of Water and Soil Conservation, 21(2), 1-29. [In Persian]
Mohammadi, H., Azizi, G., Khoshahklagh, F., Ranjbar, F. (2017).Analysis of Daily Precipitation Extreme Indices Trend in Iran. Physical Geography Research Quarterly, 49(1), 21-37. DOI: 10.22059/jphgr.2017.61577. [In Persian]
Rahimzadeh, F., Asgari, A., Fatahi, A., Mohammadian, N., Takipour, F., (2009), Rangeland temperature climatic indexes in Iran during 1951-2003, Quarterly Journal of geographic research, 24 (2): 119-144. [In Persian]
 
References (in English)
Alexander, L. V., Zhang, X., Peterson, T. C., Caesar, J., Gleason, B., Klein Tank, A. M. G. & Tagipour, A. (2006). Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 111(D5). DOI: 10.1029/2005JD006290.
Baidya, S. K., Shrestha, M. L., & Sheikh, M. M. (2008).Trends in daily climatic extremes of temperature and precipitation in Nepal. Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, 5(1), Pp. 38-51.
Bautista, F., Pacheco, A., & Dubrovina, I. (2019). Climate change indicators software for computing climate change indices for agriculture. Ecosistemas y Recursos Agropecuarios, 6(17), 343-351. DOI: 10.19136/era.a6n17.1770
Bigi, V., Pezzoli, A., & Rosso, M. (2018). Past and Future Precipitation Trend Analysis for the City of Niamey (Niger): An Overview. Climate, 6(3), 73.https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6030073
Easterling, D. R., Alexander, L. V., Mokssit, A., & Detemmerman, V. (2003). CCI/CLIVAR workshop to develop priority climate indices. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 84(10), 1403-1407. DOI:10.1175/BAMS-84-10-1403
Encinas, A. H., Dios, A. Q., Encinas, L. H., & Martínez, V. G. (2013). Statistical analysis from time series related to climate data. International Journal of Applied Physics and Mathematics, 3(3), 203.DOI: 10.7763/IJAPM.2013.V3.206.
Hu, Y., Maskey, S., & Uhlenbrook, S. (2012). Trends in temperature and rainfall extremes in the Yellow River source region, China. Climatic Change, 110(1-2), 403-429. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0056-2.
Islam, N. (2008). Understanding the Rainfall Climatology and Detection of Extreme Weather Events in SAARC Region. SAARC Meteorology. Research Centre (SMRC).
Jiang, D., Wang, K., Li, Z., & Wang, Q. (2011).Variability of extreme summer precipitation over the Circum-Bohai-Sea region during 1961–2008. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 104(3-4), 501-509. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-010-0369-5.
Kao, S. C., & Ganguly, A. R. (2011).Intensity, duration, and frequency of Precipitation Extremes under 21st‐century warming scenarios. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 116(D16). DOI:10.1029/2010JD015529.
Manton, M. J., Della‐Marta, P. M., Haylock, M. R., Hennessy, K. J., Nicholls, N., Chambers, L. E., ...& Inape, K. (2001). Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961–1998. International Journal of Climatology, 21(3), 269-284. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.610
Mathbout, S., Lopez-Bustins, J. A., Royé, D., Martin-Vide, J., Bech, J., & Rodrigo, F. S. (2018). Observed Changes in Daily Precipitation Extremes at Annual Timescale Over the Eastern Mediterranean During 1961–2012. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 175(11), 3875-3890. DOI:10.1007/s00024-017-1695-7
Mokssit, A. (2003). Development of Priority Climate Indices for Africa: A CCl. In CLIVAR Workshop of the World Meteorological Organization. In: Bolle, Hans-Jurgen (pp. 115-123). https://doi.org/10.1007 / 978-3-642-55657-9_5.
Peterson, T. C., Taylor, M. A., Demeritte, R., Duncombe, D. L., Burton, S., Thompson, F., ...& Klein Tank, A. (2002). Recent changes in climate extremes in the Caribbean region. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 107(D21), ACL-16. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002251
Poortinga, W., Spence, A., Whitmarsh, L., Capstick, S., & Pidgeon, N. F. (2011). Uncertain climate: An investigation into public scepticism about anthropogenic climate change. Global environmental change, 21(3), 1015-1024.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.03.00.
Rahimi, M., & Fatemi, S. S. (2019). Mean versus Extreme Precipitation Trends in Iran over the Period of 1960–2017. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 1-19.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02165-9
Rahimi, M., Mohammadian, N., Vanashi, A. R., & Whan, K. (2018). Trends in Indices of Extreme Temperature and Precipitation in Iran over the Period 1960-2014. Open Journal of Ecology, 8(07), 396.https://doi.org/10.4236/oje.2018.87024
Sein, K., Chidthaisong, A., & Oo, K. (2018).Observed trends and changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extreme indices over Myanmar. Atmosphere, 9(12), 477.https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9120477
Sillmann, J., & Roeckner, E. (2008). Indices for extreme events in projections of anthropogenic climate change. Climatic Change, 86(1-2), 83-104. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9308-6
Su, B. D., Jiang, T., & Jin, W. B. (2006). Recent trends in observed temperature and precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River basin, China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 83(1-4), 139-151. DOI:10.1007/s00704-005-0139-y.
Wang, L., Wang, W. J., Wu, Z., Du, H., Shen, X., & Ma, S. (2018). Spatial and temporal variations of summer hot days and heatwaves and their relationships with large‐scale atmospheric circulations across Northeast China. International Journal of Climatology, 38(15), 5633-5645. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5768
Warner, M. D., Mass, C. F., & Salathé Jr, E. P. (2012). Wintertime Extreme Precipitation Events along the Pacific Northwest coast: Climatology and synoptic evolution. Monthly Weather Review, 140(7), 2021-2043. DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00197.1.
Wei, P., Shi, J., Cui, L., & Zhang, B. (2018).Spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in East China from 1961 to 2015. Meteorologische Zeitschrift.https://dx.doi.org/10.1127/metz/2018/0849
Whan, K., Alexander, L. V., Imielska, A., McGree, S., Jones, D., Ene, E., ...& Laurent, V. (2014). Trends and variability of temperature extremes in the tropical Western Pacific.International Journal of Climatology, 34(8), 2585-2603. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3861
Yan, L., & Zheng, M. (2015). Influence of climate change on saline lakes of the Tibet Plateau, 1973–2010. Geomorphology, 246, 68-78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.06.006
Yang, J., Ren, C., & Jiang, Z. (2008).Characteristics of Extreme Temperature Events and its response to regional warming in Northwest China in the past 45 years. Chinese Geographical Science, 18(1), 70-76. DOI:10.1007/s11769-008-0070-0.
You, Q., Kang, S., Pepin, N., Flügel, W. A., Yan, Y., Behrawan, H., & Huang, J. (2010).Relationship between temperature trend magnitude, elevation and mean temperature in the Tibetan Plateau from homogenized surface stations and reanalysis data. Global and Planetary Change, 71(1-2), 124-133. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.01.020.
Zhang, X., & Yang, F. (2004).Climate Research Branch Environment Canada, Downsview, Ontario, Canada.Manual de usuario RClimdex. Versión en Español por: José Luis Santos. Centro Internacional Para la Investigación del Fenómeno de El Niño CIIFEN Septiembre, 20.
Zhang, X., Aguilar, E., Sensoy, S., Melkonyan, H., Tagiyeva, U., Ahmed, N., ...& Albert, P. (2005). Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 110(D22). DOI:10.1029/2005JD006181

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 20 May 2019
  • Revise Date: 24 July 2019
  • Accept Date: 24 November 2019
  • First Publish Date: 21 May 2020
  • Publish Date: 21 May 2020

Share

How to cite

Statistics