Analysis of the trend of time-series changes in the maximum daily and annual rainfall of Karkheh and Dez catchment

Hasanvand, Ziba; Yarahmadi, Dariush; Mirhashemi, Hamid

doi:10.22111/jneh.2022.38193.1788

Analysis of the trend of time-series changes in the maximum daily and annual rainfall of Karkheh and Dez catchment

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

¹ PhD Student of Climatology, Lorestan University, Iran

² Associate Professor of Climatology, Lorestan University,Iran

³ Assistant Professor of Climatology,Lorestan University, Iran

10.22111/jneh.2022.38193.1788

Abstract

Precipitation is the most important climatic characteristic of any region. This climatic characteristic is one of the most fluctuating climatic variables that seriously affect the water resources of the region. This issue is important in Iran, where the average rainfall is over 250 mm. The purpose of this study is to analyze and explain the heavy rainfall Karkheh and Dez using statistical methods. For this purpose, precipitation data from 14 synoptic stations and a rain gauge period of 60 years (1959-2019) were used. To achieve the objectives of the research used the probabilistic distribution function the final limit type 1 Gumble, and the heavy rain threshold of each station were determined. Then to identify the uniform and non-uniform discharges in the time series maximum daily precipitation and total annual precipitation the ITA method and Man – Kendall non-parametric test were used. The results were obtained from heavy rainfall thresholds, The average rainfall of more than 40/7 mm in Karkheh and the average rainfall of more than 47 mm in Daz are considered heavy rainfall. The average rainfall in Karkheh is 118 days and the dose is 81 days. The flood threshold of Karkheh is less than the Dez catchment. Therefore Karkheh rains occur more suddenly and irregularly while Dez has a more normal time series. As a result, Karkheh is more vulnerable to floods than Dez in terms of increased heavy rainfall. The results of using the Man – Kendal, and ITA test showed that Man – the Kendal test can only detect uniform trends in time series as the advantage ITA method is that in addition to uniform trends. It can detect hidden trends and internal in identify time series. For example, although the man – Kendal test did not show a specific trend for maximum rainfall at Khorramabad station, The ITA test detected hidden and non-uniform trends for this station.

Keywords

20.1001.1.26764377.1401.11.32.9.8

Main Subjects

Climatology

References

References (in Persian)

Bagherpour, M., Seydian, S., Fath Elahi, A., Mohammadi, A. (2019). Evaluation of the efficiency of the Man – the Kendal test in identifying the trend of self–correlated series. Iranian Journal of Watershed Management Science and Engineering. Number 36, 11-21. https://www.sid.ir/fa/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=465705 [In Persian]

Barani, N., Karami, A. (2019). Analysis of the annual trend of climatic parameters of temperature and precipitation in the ten ecological – agricultural areas of Iran. Journal of Environmental Sciences. Seventeenth period. Number 4, 75-90. https://envs.sbu.ac.ir/article_98116.html [In Persian]

Ghesab fiaz, M., Islamic, H. (2019). Evaluation of rainfall changes by Man – Kendal method and linear regression in Khuzestan province. Scientific and specialized quarterly in water engineering. Number 2, 113-120.http://jwe.iau-shoushtar.ac.ir/article_536703.html [In Persian]

Hosseini, S., Majidi, L., Bali, A., Shiravand, H. (2019). Investigation of regional fluctuations of temperature and precipitation

In Southwest Asia. Journal of Climatological Research. Eleventh year. Number 42, 155-167. http://clima.irimo.ir/article_125201.html [In Persian]

Mirmridi, Atefeh. (2019). Synoptic analysis of heavy rainfall in Lorastan province. Master thesis, Lorestan university, faculty of literature and humanities, geography group. [In Persian]

Rezaei, P., Ghorbanpour, A. (2109). Analysis of precipitation Change trends in East Gilan. Quarterly Journal of Natural Geography. Eleventh year. Number 40, 105-120. https://www.sid.ir/FileServer/JF/20413974007.pdf [In Persian]

Author: Ministry of energy macro water and wastewater statistical yearbook (1390-1391), 13. [In Persian]

Zahrabi, N., Bovani Mesah, A., Goodarzi, E., Heydar najad, M. (2017). Identify trends in temperature and annual precipitation in the catchment Karkheh. Journal of wetland Ecobiology, Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz Branch, Number 28, 5 -22.

https://www.sid.ir/fa/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=276416 [In Persian]

References (in English)

Arafat Rahman, M., Begum, M. (2013). Application of non – parametric test for trend detection of rainfall in the largest island of Bangladesh, Journal Earth Sciences, 2, 40-44. https://www.researchgate.net

Brunetti, M., Buffoni, L., Mangiantic, F., Maugeri, M., Nanni, T. (2004). Temperature Precipitation and Extreme event during the last century in Italy, Global and Planetary Change, 40, 141-149. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00104-8

Buffoni, L., Maugeri, M., Nanni, T. (1999). Precipitation in Italy from 1833 to 1996, Theoretical Applied Climatology, 63, 33-40. https://doi.org/10.1007/s007040050089

Caloiero, T., Coscarelli, R.,Ferrari,E. (2020). Assessment of seasonal and annual rainfall trends in Calabria (Southern Italy) with the ITA method. Journal of Hydroinformatics, 22(4), 738-748. https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2019.138

Caloiero, T., Coscarelli, R.,Ferrari,E. (2018). Application of the Innovative Trend Analysis Method for the Trend Analysis of Rainfall Anomalies in Southern Italy. Water Resources Management, 32, 4971-4983. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-2117-z

Elouissi, A., Sen, Z., Habi, M. (2016). Algerian rainfall innovative trend analysis and its implications to Macta Watershed. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 9, 303. http://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-016-2325-x

Hartmann, H., Becker, S.,King, L. (2008). Quasi–Periodicities in Chinese Precipitation time series, Applied Climatology, 92, 155-163. http://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-007-0317-1

IPCC Semenor, M. A. (2007). Developing of High – resolution UKCUP 02- based climate change Scenarios in the UK. Agriculturral Forest meteorology, 144, 127-138. https://links/5bec8e38a6fdcc3a8dd5924d/Development-of-high-resolution-UKCIP02-based-climate-change-scenarios-in-the-UK.pdf

Leong Tan, M., LatifIbrahim, A., Yusop, Z., Chua, V., Wengchan, N. (2017). Climate change impacts under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on water resources of the Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. Atmospheric Research, 189, 1-10. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.01.008

Murat, A., Ozgur, K. (2015). Investigation of trend analysis of monthly total precipitation by an innovative method. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 120, 617-629. http://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1198-8

Raziei, T.,Daneskar Arasteh, P.,Saghfian,B. (2005). Annual rainfall trend in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, ICID 21st European Regional Conference.May, 15-19.https://links/5736a6bc08ae9ace840afbc9/Annual-Rainfall-Trend-in-Arid-and-Semi-arid-Regions-of-Iran.pdf.