Statistical-Synoptic Analysis of April 2019 Heavy Rainfall in Doroud-Boroujerd Basin

Beiranvand, Ibrahim; Gabdomkar, Amir; Abbasi, Alireza; Khodagholi, Morteza

doi:10.22111/jneh.2022.38564.1806

Statistical-Synoptic Analysis of April 2019 Heavy Rainfall in Doroud-Boroujerd Basin

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

¹ PhD student in Meteorology, Department of Geography, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najaf-Abad, Iran.

² Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.

³ Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.

⁴ Associate Professor , Rangeland Research Division, Rangelands and Forests of Institute Research, Agricultural Research Extension Education Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran.

10.22111/jneh.2022.38564.1806

Abstract

The occurrence of catastrophic floods in March-April 2019 in Lorestan province was a clear example of heavy rains that caused very heavy damage to agricultural, urban, transportation, and communications infrastructure. The purpose of this study is to investigate the March-April 2019 rainfall in the Droud-Borujerd catchment area in terms of statistical, synoptic, and dynamic characteristics. In this regard, from the data related to the daily station rainfall in March-April 2019 of Boroujerd and Doroud synoptic stations, NOAA climate Synoptic factor data for the 25th March and 2nd April 2019, and upper atmospheric data from the University of Wyoming database for the mentioned days of April 2019. The results of statistical analysis showed that the occurrence of rainfall in April 2019 was one of the heavy rains that in the first wave (25th March) 2019 was 15% of the total annual rainfall and in the second wave (2nd April 2019) 20% of the total annual rainfall was recorded. Analysis of synoptic patterns of these heavy rainfall events showed that a similar synoptic pattern produced these two waves of heavy rainfall in the region. On both days, the presence of a strong trough a height of 5500 and 5550 geopotential meters, on the east of the Mediterranean Sea that the western region of Iran located in the front of this trough, lead to heavy rainfall. In these two days, the omega index had reached a significant critical value (-0.2). Moisture injection in the study area was done by the interaction of two cyclonic systems (east of the Mediterranean Sea) and anti-cyclone (on the Gulf of Aden) and the source of moisture supply was the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea, and the Persian Gulf, respectively. High atmospheric instability indices did not confirm the existence of very severe instability in the region. Moderate instability in the lower levels of the atmosphere, which could not be extended to the upper level (Skew-T diagram), indicated that a global synoptic system was involved in the whole region and no local convection factor played a role.

Keywords

20.1001.1.26764377.1401.11.32.10.9

Main Subjects

Climatology

References

References (in Persian)

Dadashi Roudbari,A., Fallah Ghalheri, Gh., Karami, M., Baaghide, M. (2016). Analysis of Precipitation Variations of Haraz Watershed Using Statistical Methods and Spectrum Analysis Technique.Journal of Hydro geomorphology,3(7),pp59-86. [In Persian]

Dehban , H., Ebrahimi , K., Araghinejad, S., Bazrafshan , J.(2019). Evaluation of NMME models in the forecasting of monthly rainfall (Case study: Sefidrood Basin). Journal of Agricultural Meteorology, 7(1), pp 3-12. [In Persian]

Gandomkar, A., Ra'eesi, T.(2012). Investigation of the relationship between precipitation and runoff in the Goujan basin (Karoon branch). Scientific - Research Quarterly of Geographical Data (SEPEHR),21(81), pp38-40. [In Persian]

Gasemifar, E., naserpour, S., arezomandi, L. (2017). Analysis of synoptic patterns related to extreme precipitation over west of Iran. Jsaeh, 4 (2), pp 69-86. [In Persian]

Ghavidel Y., (2011). Applications of the instability indices for detection and dynamic analysis of 25 April 2010 thunderstorm in Tabriz. Geographical Space, 11(34), pp182-208. [In Persian]

Javan, K.,Taheri shahr aeini, H.,nsiri saleh, F.,Habibinokhandan, M. (2011).A new method for the forecasting of Spatial Distribution of Precipitation and Temperature in Gharehsoo River Watershed.Journal of climate research, 5(5), pp 117-130. [In Persian]

Mehdinasab, M., Tavoosi , T., Mirzaei , R.(2014).Prediction Probable Flood and Maximum precipitation Using Poldukhtar Basin Suffered partial Series. Journal of Natural Ecosystems of Iran,5(1), pp97-109. [In Persian]

Negaresh, H., Weiss, J. (2013). Analysis of the effects of rainfall change in flooding of Ravand River catchment area, Islamabad region, west of Kermanshah province. Journal of Regional Planning, 3 (11), pp 79-98. [In Persian]

Rostami Khalaj, M., Salajeghe, A., moghadamnia, A.,Khalighi sigarodi, Sh.,Azarakhshi, M.(2019).Rainfall-runoff modeling based on system dynamics approach(Case study: Mashhad Kardeh dam basin). Watershed Engineering and Management,11(1), pp 15- 27. [In Persian]

Lashkari H., Esfandiari, N., (2021), Synoptic and thermodynamic patterns of atmospheric rivers associated with heavy precipitation in the cold period of Iran, Journal of Natural Environmental Hazards (JNEH), 10(29), pp125-144. [In Persian]

Asakereh, H., Khojasteh, A., (2021), Frequency of entrance Mediterranean Cyclones to Iran and Their Impact on Widespread precipitation, Journal of Natural Environmental Hazards (JNEH), 10(27), pp159-176. [In Persian]

References (in English)

Ahmad, E. S., William, A.G. )2018). A classification of synoptic patterns inducing heavy precipitation in Saudi Arabia during the period 2000-2014.The Journal of Atmosfera, 31(1), pp 47-67.

Chang, C.H., W. Huang. ( 2013). Hydrological modeling of typhoon-induced extreme storm runoffs from Shihmen watershed to reservoir. Taiwan. Nat Hazards, 67(2), pp 747– 761.

Chen, C h., Lin, Y., Hsu, N., Liu, C., Chen., C. (2011). Orographic effects on localized heavy rainfall events over southwestern Taiwan on 27 and 28 June 2008 during the post-MeiYu period. Atmospheric Research, 101(3), pp 595–610.

Chen, C.S., Yuh-Lang, L., Wen-Chun, P., Che-Ling, L. (2010). Investigation of a heavy rainfall event over southwestern Taiwan associated with a ubsynoptic cyclone during the 2003 Mei-Yu season. Atmospheric Research, 95(2-3),1-20.

Coats, R. (2010). Climate Change in the Tahoe Basin: Regional Trends, Impact and Drivers. Climate change, 102(3), pp 435-466.

Federico, S., Avolio, E., Pasqualoni, L., Bellecci, C. (2008). Atmospheric patterns for heavy rain events in Calabria. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 8(5), pp 1173-1186.

Kumar, A.J., R.Dudhia. Rotunno, D., Mohanty, U.C. (2008). Analysis of the 26 July 2005 Heavy rain event over Mumbai. India using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society, 134 (636), pp 1897-1910.

Lana, A. J., Campins, A., Genov, A. (2007). Atmospheric patterns for heavy rain events in the Balearic Islands. Advances in Geosciences, 12, pp 27-32. DOI:10.5194/adgeo-12-27-2007

Matlik, O., Post, P. (2008). Synoptic weather types have caused heavy precipitation in Estonia in the period 1961–to 2005. Estonian Journal of Engineering, 14(3), pp 195-208.

Mohanty, M., Mohapatra, M., Jaafry, S. N. A. (2014). Characteristic features of heavy rainfall over Gujarat and Rajasthan states of India due to very severe cyclonic storm phet over the Arabian Sea (31 May to 07 June 2010). Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change. Springer, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 35, pp 412-421 DOI:10.1007/978-94-007-7720-0_35

Muller, M., spar, M., Matschullat, J. (2009). Heavy rains and extreme rainfall-runoff events in
Central Europe from 1951 to 2002. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 9, pp 441-450. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-441-2009

Pineda, N., Bech, J., Rigo, T., Montanya, J. (2011). A Mediterranean nocturnal heavy rainfall and tornadic event, Part II: Total lightning analysis. Atmospheric Research, 100, pp 638–648. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.10.027

Sampath, D.S., Weerakoon, S.B., Herath, S. (2015). HEC-HMS model for runoff simulation in a tropical catchment with intra-basin diversions – a case study of the Deduru Oya river basin. Sri Lanka. ENGINEER, 1,pp 1-9. DOI:10.4038/engineer.v48i1.6843

Seibert, P., Frank, A., Formayer, H. (2007). Synoptic and regional patterns of heavy Precipitation in Austria. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 87(1), pp 139-153.

Shamir, E. (2017). The value and skill of seasonal forecasts for water resources management in the Upper Santa Cruz River basin in southern Arizona. Journal of Arid Environments, 137, pp 35-45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2016.10.011

Tank, A. K., Zwiers, F. W., Zhang, X. (2009). Guidelines on Analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation. World Meteorological Organization, pp. 52

Wang, H., Chen Yu, L. (2016). Distinguishing human and climate influences on streamflow changes in the Luan River basin in China. Catena, 136, pp 182–188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2015.02.013

Weldon, D., Reason, C. J. C. (2014). Variability of rainfall characteristics over the South Coast region of South Africa. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 115(1-2), pp 177-185

World Meteorological Organization. (2011). Weather extremes in a changing climate: hindsight on foresight, ISBN:978-92-63- 11075-6

Yan. Z., Jones, P.D., Davies, T.D., Moberg, A., Bergstrom, H., Camuffo, D., Cocheoc, M., Demaree, G. R., Verhoeve, T., Theoen, E., Barriendos, M., Rodriguez, R., MarttinVide, J., Yang, C. (2002). Trends of extreme temperature in Europe and China are based on daily observations. Climatic Change., 53, pp 355- 392. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-0371-1_13.