Evaluating the impact of climate change on the planning of optimal allocation of water resources in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Yasouj University, Iran

Abstract

Evaluating the impact of climate change on the planning of optimal allocation of water resources in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad



Abstract

In recent years, reduction of precipitation following climate change had undesirable effects on various sectors, especially water resources in the province. For Manage these conditions requires recognizing the two dimensions such as, climate behavior and the optimal and efficient allocation of water resources in important and consumer sectors such as agriculture. In this research, investigate climatic behavior and climate change prediction with approach of evaluating dry spells in the middle decade based on the emission scenario RCP4.5 and HadGEM2-ES Model for the province. Identified High risk areas under the influence climate oscillation. Then, for the control and optimal allocation of water resources in the catchment area in the province, using the Compromise Programming method (CP), the first step extracted and weighted allocation criteria, and finally done analysis sensitivity to climate change. Ration each regions of surface water availability allocated. The results showed that with considering the climatic state and sensitivity analysis of the model from an average of 12 billion m3 of surface storage, areas such as Yasuj and Sisakht with increasing the length of dry spells in the future and, they have a larger share in the final optimal allocation values (33% and 19%). In contrast, in hot and dry areas such as Basht, Charam and Gachsaran Because of lower sensitivity, received the lowest optimal allocation values with 6, 7 and 10% in all of the final allocation.





Key Words: Climate change, Optimal allocation, Dry Spells, Drought, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

References (in Persian)
Afzali, Z., Zare Mehrjerdi., Nabi, S .(2018). Prioritization of Jiroft Dam water resources allocation under drought approach using fuzzy ideal option similarity technique (FTOPSIS), Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Water Engineering, 33 (9), pp 112-124. [In Persian].
Akbarifard, S., Ghaderi, C., Bakhtiari, B. (2018). Optimal allocation of water resources using water cycle algorithm (Case study: Gorganrood Basin). Journal of Water Resources Engineering, 11 (36), pp 33-46. [In Persian].
Emami, SH., Kheiri Ghojeh Biglou, M. (2021). Optimal and economic allocation of water in irrigation and drainage network using a meta-innovative algorithm (ICA), Case study: Sufi-Chai network, Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Water Engineering, 10 (3), pp 25-39. [In Persian].
Habibi Davijani, M., Bani Habib, M., Hashemi, S .R. (2013). Optimization model of water resources allocation in agriculture, industry, and services using advanced GAPSO algorithm, Journal of Water and Soil, Agricultural Sciences and Industries, No. 27 (4), pp 691-680. [In Persian].
Khashei Siouki, A., Kouchakzadeh, G. (2014). Application of agricultural water allocation and management using optimization technique (PSO) Case study: Neishabour plain, water, and soil, 27 (2), pp 292-303. [In Persian].
Dadmand, F., Naji Azimi, Z., Motahari Farimani, N., Davari, K. (2021). Optimal allocation of water resources in critical conditions under the uncertainty of parameters with emphasis on maintaining the stability of water resources using the method of achieving the ideal (Case study: Mashhad), Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 15 (2), pp 388-401. [In Persian].
Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Regional Water Company (https://www.kbrw.ir). [In Persian].
Shamsipoor, A. (2013). Climatic Modeling Theory and Method, University of Tehran Press, First Edition. [In Persian].
Safari, N., Zarghami, M. (2014). Optimal allocation of surface water resources of Urmia Lake basin to beneficiary provinces by decision-making methods, water and soil knowledge (agricultural knowledge), 23 (1), pp 135-149. [In Persian].
Abdoli, H., Mahajer, Tiam. (2019). Game theory and its application in the optimal allocation of water resources. Program and Development Research 1 (3), pp 123-166. [In Persian].
Ghorbani, Behzad. (2009). Water supply and demand and the challenges ahead in Iran, the first international conference on water crisis, Zabol University, March 1999. [In Persian].
Masoudian, S. A. (2012). Iran Climate, Sharia Toos Publications, First Edition. [In Persian].
Nasiri Gheidari, O., Maroufi, S. (2020). Decision Making Water Allocation in Uncertainty Conditions Using Stable Peer Multipurpose Optimization, Journal of Water and Soil Conservation Research, 25 (2), pp 714-89. [In Persian].
Hashemi Ana, S. K. (2020) Iran Climate Future (with Emphasis on Dry spells), First Edition, Minofar Publications, Mashhad. [In Persian].
Hashemi Ana, S. K. (2021). Classification of changes in the length of rainfall-dependent dry spells in Iran. Natural Geography, 14 (53), pp 39-55. [In Persian].
 
References (in English)
Babel, M. S., Das Gupta. A. Nayak D. K. (2005). A model for optimal allocation of water to competing demands. Water resources management, 19 (6): 693-712.
Bielsa J. and Duarte R. (2018). ‘An economic model for water allocation in north eastern Spain’, Water Res. Dev. 17(3), 397–410.
Carlos, M. Nagesh Kumar, D.Sorez, F. (2019). Optimal reservoir operation for irrigation of multiple crops using elitist-mutated particle swarm optimization. Hydrology Science Journal, 52(4): 686-701.
Chen, Y. N., Li, W. H., Xu, C. C., and Hao, X. M. (2007). Effects of climate change on water resources in Tarim River Basin, Northwest China. Journal of Environmental Sciences, 19(4), 488-493.
Ficklin, Darren L., Yuzhou Luo, Eike Luedeling, and Minghua Zhang (2009). "Climate change sensitivity assessment of a highly agricultural watershed using SWAT." Journal of Hydrology 374, no. 1-2 (2009): 16-29.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.05.016.
Gaitan, Carlos F., William W. Hsieh, and Alex J. Cannon. (2019). Comparison of statistically downscaled precipitation in terms of future climate indices and daily variability for southern Ontario and Quebec, Canada." Climate Dynamics. 43:3201-3227.
Gayar, A. E., and Hamed, Y. (2018). Climate change and water resources management in Arab countries. In Euro-Mediterranean Conference for Environmental Integration (pp. 89-91). Springer, Cham.
Georgi, F. and B. Hewitson. (2001). Regional Climate Information Evaluation and Projections, in Climate Change, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 121: 1413-1449. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2007.07.037.
Giupponi, C., and Gain, A. K. (2020). Integrated water resources management (IWRM) for climate change adaptation. Regional Environmental Change, 17(7), 1865-1867.
Gohari, A., Mirchi, A., and Madani, K. (2019). System dynamics evaluation of climate change adaptation strategies for water resources management in central Iran. Water Resources Management, 31(5), 1413-1434.
Hashemi-Ana, S. K., Khosravi, M., and Tavousi, T. (2015). Validation of AOGCMs Capabilities for Simulation Length of Dry Spells under the Climate Change in the Southwestern Area of Iran. Open Journal of Air Pollution, 4(02), 76-85.‏
Hassanzadeh E, Zarghami M and Hassanzadeh Y, 2012. Determining the main factors in declining the Urmia Lake level by using system dynamics modeling, Water Resources Management 26(1): 129-145.
Howitt, R.E., J. Medellin-Azuara, D. MacEwan, and R. Lund. (2012). Calibrating Disaggregate Economic Models of Agricultural Production and Water Management. Science of the Environmental Modeling and Software, 38: 244-258.
Kronaveter L and Shamir U, (2018). Negotiation support for cooperative allocation of a shared water resource: Methodology. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 135(2): 60-69.
Mehrparvar, M., Ahmadi, A., and Safavi, H. R. (2016). Social resolution of conflicts over water resources allocation in a river basin using cooperative game theory approaches a case study. International Journal of River Basin Management, 14(1), 33-45.
Schewe, J., Heinke, J., Gerten, D., Haddeland, I., Arnell, N. W., Clark, D. B., and Gosling, S. N. (2014). Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), 3245-3250. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222460110.‏
Selvaraj RS, Selvis T .(2010). Stochastic modeling of daily precipitation at Aduthurai in India. International journal of climatology, 11(3), pp, 20-29.
Sharma, P. J., Patel, P. L., and Jothiprakash, V. (2016). Efficient discretization of state variables in stochastic dynamic programming model of Ukai reservoir, India. ISH Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 22(3), 293-304.‏
Van der Zaag P, (2017). Integrated water resources management: relevant concept or irrelevant buzzword? A capacity building and research agenda for Southern Africa. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 30: 867–871.
Yu.pao-shan, Y.Tao-Chang and W.chih-Kang (2017)."Impact of climate change on water resources in southern Taiwan ".J.Hidro.260:161-175. https://doi.org/ soo22-1694(01)00614-x.
 Zeleny, M. (2012). Multiple criteria decision making Kyoto (1975), Springer Science and Business Media. University of South Carolina Press, Columbia, USA. (Vol. 2).
Zmudzka, E. (2004). The Climatic Background of Agricultural Production in Poland 1951-2000, Miscellanea Geographic, 11: 127-137.

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 09 February 2022
  • Revise Date: 12 June 2022
  • Accept Date: 24 June 2022

Share

How to cite

Statistics