Forecasting the maximum temperature of the future periods in northwest Iran based on the CMIP6 climate models

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Postdoctoral Researcher, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.

2 Professor of Climatology, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran

3 Postdoctoral Researcher, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran

Abstract

One of the most important challenges for mankind is the issue of climate change and how to face the dangers caused by it. The purpose of this research was to forecast the maximum temperature in northwest Iran based on CMIP6 climate models. For this purpose, after trending the maximum temperature data of 12 selected stations in the northwest of Iran from 1985 to 2014 using the Man-Kendall test, maximum temperatures were simulated in SDSM6.1 using (SSP 2-4.5) and (SSP 5-8.5) scenarios of CanEsm5, MPI-ESMI-2HR models and predicted for the next 30 years. To evaluate the performance of CMIP6 models and compare the basic and predicted values, 3 statistical measures are used. Including Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The results of trending by the Man-Kendall method indicated a significant upward trend at the 99% confidence level in all stations except Jolfa station. The results of maximum temperature modeling showed that the CanESM5 model has less error and more accuracy in predicting the maximum temperature compared to the MPI-ESMI-2HR model. According to the results, an increase in temperature will be experienced in all stations and all months of the year in the coming decades, and the amount of this increase was higher in (SSP 5.8.5) scenario. In general, according to the findings, the highest percentage of temperature increase in all stations will occur in the cold months and often in late autumn and winter. Based on the results, the maximum temperature in all stations will increase from 0.2℃ to 2℃. Tekab, Urmia, and Maragheh stations with a 12-13% increase, and Mako and Jolfa with a 6% increase will experience the highest and lowest increase in maximum temperature, respectively, compared to other stations.

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References

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Journal of Natural Environmental Hazards

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 17 September 2024

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History

  • Receive Date: 29 November 2023
  • Revise Date: 10 August 2024
  • Accept Date: 17 September 2024

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