Analyzing the Threats of Climate Change and Land Use Changes on Increasing Flood Risk in the Shahrchay Drainage Basin

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 PhD graduate, Department of Range and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Department of Range and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran

3 Professor Department Faculty of Science and Engineering, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia

Abstract

This study investigated the factors influencing flood proneness and predicted future flood risks in the Shahrchay watershed, located in West Azerbaijan Province, a sub-basin of the Urmia Lake watershed. Given population growth, social and economic development, and climatic changes due to global warming, flood damage in this region is increasing. This study aimed to identify the main factors affecting flood risk and predict the likelihood of future floods. To achieve the stated goal, first, for monitoring and evaluating land use changes in the last seven years, Sentinel2 images were used using an object-oriented method and image classification from the SVM algorithm, and for simulating future land use changes, the CA-MARKOV algorithm was used. Finally, runoff simulation using the InVEST model was introduced to the InVEST software from the variables of precipitation (for precipitation simulation, LARS-WG software, the CMIP6 climate model named ACCESS-CM2, and two scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), land use, hydrological soil group, and curve number related to the study watershed. The final results show that for 2016, 2023, and 2030, the southern side of the Shahrchay watershed has a very low flood potential. In the central part of the watershed, the potential for runoff production was medium and high. According to the prediction results for 2030, the maximum and minimum runoff production potentials were estimated with numerical values of 129.57 and 0 cubic meters, respectively. Therefore, runoff will increase in most parts of the Shahrchay watershed.

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References

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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 23 September 2024

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  • Receive Date: 13 June 2024
  • Revise Date: 10 August 2024
  • Accept Date: 23 September 2024

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