Analysis of Precipitation Extremes Trends in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Basin in Southern Iran

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Associate Professor, Department of Physical Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center, Tehran, Iran

3 MSc. of Agricultural Engineering, Sistan and Baluchestan Province Meteorological Administration, Zahedan, Iran

4 MSc. of Mathematics, Sistan and Baluchestan Province Meteorological Administration, Zahedan, Iran

5 MSc. of Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

6 Postdoc Researcher, Department of Physical Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

7 PhD student of Climatology, Geography Department, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran

Abstract

In this research, to analyze the trends of precipitation extremes in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Basin, daily precipitation data from 47 meteorological stations over 30 years (1993-2022) were used. Fifteen precipitation extreme indices were extracted for all the studied stations, and their long-term trends were analyzed using Sen's slope estimator. The results indicated a decreasing trend in the annual total precipitation on wet days for the western and central parts and an increasing trend for the eastern parts of the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Basin. Consistent with the decreasing trend in annual total precipitation, these two parts of the studied basin experienced a decrease in the number of days with heavy rains (more than 10 mm), very heavy rains (more than 20 mm), extremely heavy rains (more than 30 mm), and maximum consecutive 1-day, 3-day, and 5-day precipitations. However, in the eastern part of the studied basin, the trend of maximum length of dry spells was decreasing. In line with this trend, the number of days with heavy rains (more than 10 mm), very heavy rains (more than 20 mm), extremely heavy rains (more than 30 mm), and maximum consecutive 1-day, 3-day, and 5-day precipitations also showed increasing trends.

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References

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Journal of Natural Environmental Hazards

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 02 January 2025

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  • Receive Date: 05 May 2024
  • Revise Date: 01 December 2024
  • Accept Date: 02 January 2025

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