Investigation of Changes in Climatic Indicators with an Emphasis on Dust and the Impact of Teleconnection Indices on These Changes in Western Iran

Vatanparast Galeh Juq, Fatemeh; Salahi, Bromand

doi:10.22111/jneh.2025.50874.2096

Investigation of Changes in Climatic Indicators with an Emphasis on Dust and the Impact of Teleconnection Indices on These Changes in Western Iran

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

¹ Ph.D of Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Iran

² Professor of Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Iran

10.22111/jneh.2025.50874.2096

Abstract

Understanding changes in climate and the factors affecting their occurrence is of great importance. In this study, the trend of spatiotemporal changes in the parameters of average temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, number of dust days, maximum speed, and wind direction from 1987-2023 at 13 stations in the western half of Iran was investigated using Mann-Kendall statistical methods and Sen's slope, and their relationship with each other was analyzed using the Pearson correlation method. Using the Mantel linear test and the Geo-Detector (GDM) geographical classification method, the effects of teleconnection indices, including QBO, IOD, BEST, and NAO, on the aforementioned parameters were investigated. The results of the spatial fluctuation analysis using Sen's slope test showed that more than 85 percent of the area of the study area had an increasing trend in all parameters. The Mann–Kendall test showed that the highest increase and decrease in the parameters were related to the Sarpol-e-Zahab and Dezful stations, respectively. Pearson correlation analysis showed that the highest values of the correlation coefficients were between relative humidity and all parameters, which was inverse and significant at the 0.001% error level. Among the parameters, wind speed played the greatest role in the occurrence of dust storms, and its effects were observed in 74.9% of the study area. According to the results of the Mantel test, among the parameters studied, the highest correlation of the teleconnection indices with dust frequency was established, covering 69% of the study area. Ranking of the dominant factors on climate change with the geo-detector index identified the independent factor IOD as the superior and influential factor in the distribution of these changes. The findings of this study can help understand the climatic factors that influence changes in climate parameters.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Climate-change-new-findings

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