Flood Hazard Mapping in the Keshkanrud Basin Using a Hybrid Model of Fuzzy-Analytical Hierarchy Process, TOPSIS, and Weighted Overlay Methods

Nazarpour, Ahad; Andik, Susan

doi:10.22111/jneh.2025.51912.2112

Flood Hazard Mapping in the Keshkanrud Basin Using a Hybrid Model of Fuzzy-Analytical Hierarchy Process, TOPSIS, and Weighted Overlay Methods

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

Ahad Nazarpour ¹
Susan Andik ²

¹ Associate Prof, Department of Geology, Ahvaz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, Iran

² MSc. Student, Department of RS&GIS, Ahvaz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, Iran

10.22111/jneh.2025.51912.2112

Abstract

Floods, as one of the most destructive natural hazards, cause extensive damage worldwide, particularly in mountainous regions of Iran such as the Keshkanrud Basin. This study aimed to map flood hazard zones in the Keshkanrud Basin using a combination of Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP), Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Weighted Overlay methods within a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework. Multiple criteria, including elevation, slope, rainfall, distance from rivers, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), land use/land cover (LULC), soil type, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and erosion rate, were evaluated. The results revealed that areas such as Pol-e Dokhtar, Khorramabad, Shiravand, and parts of Kuhdasht are at the highest risk of flooding due to their topographic, hydrologic, and land cover characteristics, while northern regions like Alashtar were identified as low-risk zones. These findings align with historical flood data from 2019, which reported a peak discharge of 7,000 m³/s and economic losses of 26 million USD in Pol-e Dokhtar. The Fuzzy AHP method, with a correlation coefficient of 0.92, proved to be the most accurate model, classifying 8.2% of the basin as very high-risk and 28.1% as high-risk. The TOPSIS and Weighted Overlay methods also yielded comparable results, with correlation coefficients of 0.89 and 0.87, respectively. This study provides a scientific basis for flood risk management in the Keshkanrud Basin by presenting flood hazard maps and recommending measures such as designing drainage systems, restoring vegetation cover, and implementing urban development management strategies.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Environmental Hazards

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