Foresight Analysis of Water Issues Using Scenario Planning in Human Settlements of the Nimbeluk Plain, with a Focus on the Steel Industry

Khazaei, Fatemeh; Eskandari Sani, Mohammad; Shatri, Mofid

doi:10.22111/jneh.2025.52408.2119

Foresight Analysis of Water Issues Using Scenario Planning in Human Settlements of the Nimbeluk Plain, with a Focus on the Steel Industry

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

¹ MSc. of Geography, Department of Geography, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran

² Associate Professor, Department of Geography, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran

10.22111/jneh.2025.52408.2119

Abstract

The water crisis in semi-arid regions like South Khorasan has been exacerbated by drought and aquifer depletion. The establishment of the Qaenat Steel Plant in the Nimbeluk Plain, with its high water consumption and environmental impacts, poses a threat to the future of water resources and human settlements in the region. This study aims to provide intelligent management solutions by conducting a foresight analysis of water issues, focusing on the impacts of the steel industry. The research is descriptive-analytical with an applied objective, and data were collected through library and field methods (interviews and questionnaires). The statistical population consisted of 11 regional and water planning experts selected through convenience sampling. Thirty-six variables affecting water resources were identified, and key drivers were determined using structural analysis in MicMac software. Subsequently, a questionnaire was used to assess the impact of these drivers in probable scenarios, and the data were analyzed using scenario planning and Scenario Wizard software. The results identified urban drinking water quality, water supply quality, migration tendencies, water access, and the use of Qaen's urban wastewater as key drivers. Scenario analysis indicated a dominance of undesirable scenarios (75%), highlighting the need for optimal water resource management and mitigation of industrial pressures. This study provides a framework for short-term, medium-term, and long-term policymaking by forecasting water consumption patterns in the Nimbeluk Plain to achieve sustainable development and effective water resource management.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Environmental Hazards

References

References [in Persian]

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