Investigating the Factors Influencing Farmers’ Resilience to Water Scarcity Crisis (A Case Study of Rural Settlements in the Central District of Ardabil County, Iran)

Khodapanah, Kiuomars; Yari, Arasto; Mohammadi, Saadi

doi:10.22111/jneh.2026.53000.2137

Investigating the Factors Influencing Farmers’ Resilience to Water Scarcity Crisis (A Case Study of Rural Settlements in the Central District of Ardabil County, Iran)

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

¹ Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran.

² Professor of the Department of Geography and Urban and Rural Planning, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.

³ Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran.

10.22111/jneh.2026.53000.2137

Abstract

Water crisis in Iran is one of the most complex and challenging issues of recent decades, posing a serious threat to agricultural security, environmental sustainability, and even socio-economic stability. Accordingly, the present study aims to investigate the factors influencing the resilience of rural farmers to water scarcity in the Central District of Ardabil County. The statistical population of the study consists of 30 villages with more than 50 farming households. Based on Cochran’s formula, the sample size was estimated at 366 respondents and increased to 380 to improve the reliability of the results. A total of six main factors and 72 indicators were employed to analyze farmers’ resilience. Data analysis was conducted using SmartPLS 3 software. The findings indicate that six indicators with factor loadings below the threshold value of 0.40 were removed from the model. Among the remaining 66 standardized indicators, the existence of transparent regulations for the sustainable use and protection of water resources, flexibility of government programs in response to climate change, and the development of appropriate infrastructure for water scarcity management showed the highest factor loadings. The results also demonstrate a significant relationship between the exogenous and endogenous variables of the model, with a relatively acceptable predictive power. Overall, the economic factor exerted the strongest influence on farmers’ resilience to water scarcity. The study concludes that resilience to water scarcity in the Central District of Ardabil County is a multidimensional and integrated phenomenon. Without adopting a comprehensive approach and simultaneously utilizing economic, social, infrastructural, institutional, and technological capacities, sustainable protection of rural livelihoods cannot be achieved. The findings further reveal that despite the provision of financial resources, the existing planning system has not yet continuously strengthened rural resilience due to its fragmented, short-term, and locally misaligned nature.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Ecological-conservation

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