Assessment of the Intensity of Water Erosion in the Mid-Ab Basin of Shushtar under Climate Change Scenarios for the Period 2021–2040

Ghobishawi, Yasmine; Zakerinejad, Reza

doi:10.22111/jneh.2026.54538.2153

Assessment of the Intensity of Water Erosion in the Mid-Ab Basin of Shushtar under Climate Change Scenarios for the Period 2021–2040

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

¹ Master's degree in Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems, University of Isfahan, Iran

² Associate Professor, Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

10.22111/jneh.2026.54538.2153

Abstract

Water erosion is a dynamic and destructive process in which topsoil is detached and transported by raindrop kinetic energy and surface runoff shear stress (rill or sheet flow). This leads to decreased soil fertility, infrastructure damage and increased sedimentation in waterways. This study aimed to assess the current and future potential of water erosion in the Mianab-Shushtar watershed (Khuzestan Province) by employing the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) integrated with the BCC-CSM2-MR climate model scenario within a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework. The methodological novelty of this study lies in its future projection, which relies on high-resolution, up-to-date data. The Slope Length and Steepness factor (LS) were calculated using a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and SAGA GIS analytical tools. The Rainfall Erosivity factor (R) was extracted from the novel SM2RAIN-MONITORING data obtained from the WorldClim site. The land cover factor (C) was determined based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat 9 satellite imagery for 2023. The Support Practice factor (P) was omitted because of the scarcity of regional management data. The results indicated that the erosion distribution is highly topographically dependent, with the highest estimated rates concentrated in the eastern and southeastern areas, exhibiting high LS values. Nevertheless, over 90% of the watershed area fell within the “Very Low & Low” erosion class. Long-term projections (up to 2040) raise alerts regarding stability failure and the expansion of erosion toward the central and western parts of the basin. Consequently, management strategies must simultaneously implement preventative measures in the west and center, alongside necessary adjustments in the east. This study provides a documented framework for prioritizing management interventions in similar semi-arid basins in Southern Iran by presenting a localized, high-spatial-accuracy model.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Ecology

References

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