Monitoring and Analysis of Soil Moisture Dynamics and Agricultural Drought in Fars Province Utilizing the TVDI and MODIS Sensor Data (2001–2021)

Ashouri Qaleh-e-Rodkhani, Zeinab; Mozaffari, Gholamali; Ghafarian Malmiri, Hamidreza; Rousta, Iman

doi:10.22111/jneh.2026.54925.2161

Monitoring and Analysis of Soil Moisture Dynamics and Agricultural Drought in Fars Province Utilizing the TVDI and MODIS Sensor Data (2001–2021)

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

¹ PhD Student of Climatology, Geography Department, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

² Professor of Climatology, Geography Department, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

³ Associate Professor of Remote Sensing, Geography Department, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

10.22111/jneh.2026.54925.2161

Abstract

Accurate surface soil moisture monitoring is critical for mitigating drought crises and safeguarding food security in Fars province, a premier agricultural hub in Iran. To capture the spatio-temporal dynamics of drought severity, this study leveraged a two-decade archive (2001–2020) of MODIS time-series imagery. Methodologically, the Temperature-Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) was computed to retrieve soil moisture estimates. Unpacking the complex dynamics driving these variations required evaluating key environmental variables, namely, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Digital Elevation Models (DEM), through rigorous spatial and statistical assessments. The findings reveal a nuanced reality. Beyond broad climatic trends, the synergistic interaction between vegetation shifts and elevation exerts the strongest governing influence over the province’s soil moisture distribution. Spatial mapping of the TVDI demonstrated that regions suffering from severe to extreme drought comprise merely 15% to 20% of the total land area, heavily concentrated in the southern tier. In stark contrast, vast expanses across the northern, western, and central territories (approximately 65% to 70%) experience either mild or negligible drought conditions. Ultimately, drought patterns in this region are not solely dictated by climate forcing. The intricate interplay between topography and vegetation serves as a crucial mitigating or amplifying mechanism. Adopting a hybridized TVDI framework that explicitly accounts for elevation-vegetation dynamics offers a robust analytical approach. Such an integrated perspective provides policymakers with the precision required to pinpoint vulnerable hotspots and design targeted water resource management strategies.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Climatology

References

References (in English)

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