Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Variability and Its Impact on Rainfed Wheat Production (Case Study: Khuzestan, Ilam, and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Provinces)

Mohammadi Ravari, Forough; Omidvar, Kamal; Mozaffari, Gholam Ali; Mazidi, Ahmad; Rousta, Iman

doi:10.22111/jneh.2026.54365.2152

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Variability and Its Impact on Rainfed Wheat Production (Case Study: Khuzestan, Ilam, and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Provinces)

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

¹ Ph.D. student of Climatology, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

² Professor of climatology and faculty member of the Department of Geography, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

³ Associate Professor of Climatology, Department of Geography, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.

⁴ Associate Professor of Climatology, Department of Geography, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

10.22111/jneh.2026.54365.2152

Abstract

Increasing temperature and irregular precipitation patterns, particularly in semi-arid regions, are among the most important limiting factors for rainfed wheat production. This crop is highly dependent on the amount and seasonal distribution of rainfall as well as soil moisture storage, and any changes in temperature or precipitation timing can directly affect crop growth duration, phenological stages, and final yield. This study investigates the spatiotemporal variations of temperature and precipitation and evaluates their impacts on harvested area and production of rainfed wheat in Khuzestan, Ilam, and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad provinces. To achieve this, station-based temperature and precipitation data, agricultural statistics, and remote sensing datasets, including CHIRPS monthly precipitation, land surface temperature, and MODIS NDVI, were used. The results indicated that the mean annual temperature increased by approximately 0.2 to 0.4 °C over the study period. In contrast, annual precipitation trends were not statistically significant, and interannual variability dominated precipitation patterns. R² analysis revealed that climatic variables have a limited effect on the harvested area of rainfed wheat (R² < 0.02), while their influence on yield variability is more pronounced. Specifically, in Khuzestan, R² values were 0.14 for temperature and 0.095 for precipitation; in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, precipitation showed an R² of 0.147; and in Ilam, a very weak relationship was observed (R² ≈ 0.015). Overall, these findings suggest that climatic variability exerts a stronger influence on wheat yield than on cultivated area, highlighting the sensitivity of rainfed agricultural systems to temperature and precipitation fluctuations

Keywords

Main Subjects

Climatology

References

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