Investigating the Role of Climate Change in the Risk of Wildfires Occurring in the Forests and Rangelands of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province

Rezapour, Zolfaghar; Eskandari, Saeedeh; Yazdanpanah, Hojjatollah

doi:10.22111/jneh.2024.47185.1998

Investigating the Role of Climate Change in the Risk of Wildfires Occurring in the Forests and Rangelands of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

¹ PhD. Student, Climatology Research Group, Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

² Associate Prof. Forest Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran.

³ Associate Prof. Climatology Research Group, Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

10.22111/jneh.2024.47185.1998

Abstract

Fire is one of the threatening factors of Iran's forests and rangelands. Thousands of hectares of forests and rangelands are burned by fire in Zagros, yearly. A wide part of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad's forests and rangelands have burned by fire in recent years. The present research was conducted to investigate the role of climatic parameter changes in fire occurrence in forests and rangelands of this province. Both temporal and spatial relationships between climatic and fire variables were investigated. Climatic variables data were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization and fire data (number, area, and location) in the period of 2006-2020 were obtained from the Natural Resources and Watershed Organization of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad province. The temporal relationship between climatic and fire variables was analyzed based on Pearson correlation coefficient and regression analysis. After preparing the fire map and climatic maps by interpolation method, the spatial relationship between climatic variables and fire occurrence was obtained by the logistic regression method. The spatial modeling of the fire risk probability was done using 70% of fire locations and the logistic regression method. To evaluate the efficiency of the logistic regression method, 30% of fire locations and area under the curve (AUC) method were used. For the accuracy assessment of the fire risk probability map, error matrix and overall accuracy were applied. Results of the temporal relationship showed that the number of fires had a significant relationship with seasonal wind speed mean. Results of spatial relationship showed that seasonal temperature mean was the most important variable in fire occurrence. Evaluation of efficiency and validation of logistic regression and fire risk map showed that this method with AUC 0.95 and OA 92.7% had a good accuracy in identifying fire risk areas in forests and rangelands of the province. The results of this research are practical in fire management, monitoring, and prediction in the natural resources of the province.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Environmental Hazards

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