ارزیابی تغییر اقلیم دریای خزر از طریق تحلیل روند دمای سطح آب

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری آب و هواشناسی، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه اصفهان

2 دانشیار آب و هواشناسی، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه اصفهان

3 استادیار آب و هواشناسی، گروه جغرافیای دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه گلستان

چکیده

تغییرات دمای سطح آب دریا و دریاچه ها می تواند اثرات قابل توجهی بر اکوسیستمهای دریایی و زندگی جوامع انسانی حواشی این دریاها داشته باشد. با تحلیل روند دمای سطح آب دریاها می توان میزان اثر پذیری آن دریا از تغییر اقلیم جهانی را بررسی نمود. با توجه به اینکه دریای خزر به عنوان بزرگترین پیکره آبی بسته جهان شناخته شده است این تغییرات دمای سطح آب می تواند صدمات زیادی به اکوسیستم حساس و شکننده این دریا وارد کند. هدف تحقیق حاضر تحلیل روند دمای سطح آب دریای خزر به منظور بررسی اثر پذیری این دریا از تغییر اقلیم جهانی جهت اعمال آن در برنامه ریزهای مدیریتی جهت حفظ تعادل این اکوسیستم آبی ارزشمند می باشد. این تحقیق با استفاده از داده های شبکه ای با تفکیک مکانی 25/0*25/0* درجه قوسی طی یک دوره آماری 29 ساله در قالب روشهای آماری ناپارامتری بر روی 720 یاخته انجام گردید. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که در مقیاسهای ماهانه، فصلی و سالانه دمای سطح آب دریای خزر دارای روند افزایشی قابل توجهی است که این روند نیازمند توجه برنامه ریزان و مدیران تصمیم گیرنده در کشورهای حاشیه این دریا بمنظور حفظ تعادل اکوسیستم آن می باشد. آهنگ افزایش دمای سطح آب حدود 5/0 سلسیوس به ازای هر دهه برای این دریا می باشد. با توجه به اینکه خزر یک سیستم بسته می باشد هر گونه افزایش محسوس دمای سطح آب می تواند اثرات زیانباری بر زندگی آبزیان، منابع آب، تبخیر از سطح دریا و به تبع آن بر تراز و وضعیت آلودگی دریا داشته باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of Climate Changes in the Caspian Sea by trend analyzing the sea surface temperature

نویسندگان [English]

  • Akbar Zahraei 1
  • Javad KHoshhal Dastjerdi 2
  • Abdolazim GHanghermeh 3
1 PhD student in climatology ,Physical Geography and Climatology Department, Geography and Planning Faculty, University of Isfahan, Isfahan ,Iran.
2 Associate Professor of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, University of Isfahan, Esfahan, Iran
3 Assistant professor in the department of Geography in the Faculty of human sciences at Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Changes the Sea surface temperature and lake can have significant impacts on marine ecosystems and the lives of human societies on the edges of these seas. By trend analyzing the temperature of sea surface temperatures, we can examine the extent of its impact on global climate change. Given the fact that the Caspian Sea is known as the world's largest closed water body, these changes in surface water temperatures can cause great damage to the sensitive and fragile ecosystem of this sea. The purpose of the present research is to analyze the trend of sea surface temperature in the Caspian Sea in order to investigate the effect of this sea on global climate change in order to apply it in management plans to maintain the balance of this valuable water ecosystem. This research was performed using non-parametric statistical methods on 720 cells using network data with a spatial resolution of 0.25 * 0.25 * arcs in a 29-year statistical period. The results of the study showed that the monthly, seasonal and annual monthly water temperature of the Caspian Sea has a significant upward trend, which requires the attention of planners and decision makers in the margins of this sea to maintain ecosystem balance. Considering that the Caspian Sea is a closed system, any appreciable increase in surface water temperature can have adverse effects on aquatic life, water resources, evaporation from the sea level and, consequently, on the level and status of pollution of the sea.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • Trend Analysis
  • Sea surface temperature
  • Caspian Sea

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 12 دی 1396
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 22 بهمن 1396
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 04 اردیبهشت 1397
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار: 01 خرداد 1398
  • تاریخ انتشار: 01 خرداد 1398

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