مدل‌سازی توسعه فرونشینی دشت مرودشت در رابطه با برداشت آب‌‌های زیرزمینی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه

2 دانشیار، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه

چکیده

برداشت بیش از حد از سفره‌های آب زیرزمینی در کشور سبب افت شدید سطح ایستابی آبخوان و از بین رفتن لایه‌های آبدار زمین گردیده است که آثار آن پدیده فرونشست می‌باشد. در این پژوهش شبیه‌سازی تغییرات سطح آب زیرزمینی حوضه مرودشت – خرامه از یک دوره صحت‌سنجی و پردازش مجموعۀ گسترده‌ای از داده‌های خام در مدل ریاضی مادفلو استفاده شد. نتایج خروجی از تحلیل حساسیت پارامترهای مؤثر در واسنجی آبخوان مرودشت، نشان دهنده تأثیر حداکثری پارامترهای هدایت هیدرولیکی و ناهمسانگردی هدایت هیدرلیکی افقی و یک مجموعه گروه خطی شبکه آبراهه‌ای است. از این رو با آمار سازمان آب منطقه‌ای فارس مبنی بر وجود چاه‌هایی با آبدهی بالا در این مناطق هماهنگی دارد. با توجه به شرایط حاکم بر آبخوان در صورت ادامه روند بهره‌برداری کنونی پیش بینی می شود تراز سطح آب زیرزمینی در طی سال‌های 2019 تا 2029 میزان15 متر افت خواهد داشت هم‌چنین با توجه به نشست میانگین زمین که به طور میانگین0.76 متر به ازای 10 متر افت تراز آبخوان می‌باشد، میزان نشست متوسط زمین با روند کنونی برداشت در ده سال آینده 114.78سانتی‌متر قابل پیش‌بینی می‌باشد و با افزایش 30 درصدی برداشت، میزان افت تراز آبخوان در طی 20 سال آینده در حدود 37 متر می باشد که افت سالانه آن در حدود 1.9 متر می‌باشد. فرونشست زمین در این حالت نیز در حدود 280 سانتی‌متر پیش‌بینی می‌شود. در نهایت با استناد به نقشه‌های تهیه شده از آبخوان مرودشت با توجه به آبرفتی بودن سفره آب زیرزمینی اثر افت سطح آب را می‌توان با فاصله مکانی کم مشاهده کرد. که میزان فرونشست در حاشیه جنوبی و جنوب غربی دشت به دلیل ضخامت کم رسوبات و در نواحی شمالی و شمال شرقی دشت به دلیل رسوبات دانه درشت، کمتر از قسمت‌های مرکزی دشت باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling the subsidence development of Marvdasht plain in relation to groundwater abstraction

نویسندگان [English]

  • Azam Heydari 1
  • Iraj Jabbari 2
1 PhD student, Department of Physical Geography, Razi University of Kermanshah, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Physical Geography, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran
چکیده [English]

Excessive abstraction of groundwater aquifers in the country has caused a sharp drop in the aquifer water level and the loss of aquatic aquifers, the effects of which is the phenomenon of subsidence. In this study, simulation of groundwater level changes in Marvdasht-Kharameh basin from a validation period and processing of a large set of raw data in Modflow mathematical model was used. The output results of sensitivity analysis of effective parameters in the calibration of Marvdasht aquifer show the maximum effect of hydraulic conductivity parameters and horizontal hydraulic conductance anisotropy and a set of linear groups of water supply network. Therefore, it is in line with the statistics of the Fars Regional Water Organization that there are wells with high discharge in these areas. According to the conditions of the aquifer, if the current operation trend continues, it is predicted that the groundwater level will drop by 15 meters during the years 2019 to 2029. Also, according to the average land subsidence, which averages 0.76 meters per 10 meters. The average land subsidence with the current harvest trend in the next ten years is predictable 114.78 cm and with a 30% increase in harvest, the rate of aquifer decline over the next 20 years is about 37 meters with an annual decline of about It is 1.9 meters. Land subsidence in this case is also predicted to be about 280 cm. Finally, according to the maps prepared from Marvdasht aquifer, due to the alluvial nature of the groundwater aquifer, the effect of water level drop can be observed from a short distance. The rate of subsidence in the southern and southwestern margins of the plain due to the low thickness of sediments and in the northern and northeastern parts of the plain due to coarse-grained sediments, is less than the central parts of the plain.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Subsidence
  • Groundwater
  • Marvdasht
  • Fars Province
  • Environmental Hazards
  • Modflow
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  • تاریخ دریافت: 23 خرداد 1400
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 30 بهمن 1400
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 18 اسفند 1400
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار: 18 اسفند 1400
  • تاریخ انتشار: 01 دی 1401